龍源技術:業績(ji)符合預(yu)期,關注鍋爐改造業務進展

類別(bie)：公(gong)司(si)研(yan)(yan)究(jiu) 機構：國(guo)聯證券(quan)股份有(you)限(xian)公(gong)司(si) 研(yan)(yan)究(jiu)員：馬寶德(de) 日期：2014-10-30

事件(jian):公(gong)(gong)司公(gong)(gong)布2014年(nian)(nian)三季度報告,前(qian)三季度實(shi)現營業(ye)收入92772.67萬(wan)元,較去年(nian)(nian)同(tong)期(qi)增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)52.1%,歸屬上(shang)市公(gong)(gong)司股東的凈(jing)利潤為7408.66萬(wan)元,比(bi)去年(nian)(nian)同(tong)期(qi)增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)41.12%,實(shi)現每股收益0.14元,符合我們的預期(qi)。

點評:

業績符合(he)前期(qi)判(pan)斷,鍋(guo)爐余熱利用(yong)和(he)鍋(guo)爐改造(zao)業務有所(suo)突破(po)。

公司的主(zhu)營(ying)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)務(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)產(chan)品(pin)(pin)(pin)目(mu)前涵蓋點(dian)火(huo)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)務(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)、低(di)氮燃燒(shao)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)務(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)和余熱(re)(re)回(hui)收(shou)(shou)(shou)利用(yong)、鍋(guo)爐(lu)(lu)節能改造(zao)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)務(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)。前三季度公司的低(di)氮業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)務(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)和鍋(guo)爐(lu)(lu)余熱(re)(re)利用(yong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)務(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)繼續保持同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)增長,其(qi)中鍋(guo)爐(lu)(lu)綜(zong)(zong)合(he)(he)改造(zao)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)務(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)實現突(tu)破(po),奠定(ding)了(le)營(ying)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)收(shou)(shou)(shou)入(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)增加的基礎。從分(fen)項(xiang)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)務(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)的進(jin)展(zhan)來(lai)看(kan),公司等離子產(chan)品(pin)(pin)(pin)收(shou)(shou)(shou)入(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)占主(zhu)營(ying)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)務(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)收(shou)(shou)(shou)入(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)比(bi)(bi)(bi)例(li)(li)為14.67%,較(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)去(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)年(nian)同(tong)(tong)期(qi)下降7.2個百(bai)(bai)分(fen)點(dian);低(di)氮燃燒(shao)產(chan)品(pin)(pin)(pin)收(shou)(shou)(shou)入(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)占主(zhu)營(ying)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)務(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)收(shou)(shou)(shou)入(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)比(bi)(bi)(bi)例(li)(li)為59.58%,較(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)去(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)年(nian)同(tong)(tong)期(qi)下降5.76個百(bai)(bai)分(fen)點(dian);微油點(dian)火(huo)產(chan)品(pin)(pin)(pin)收(shou)(shou)(shou)入(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)占主(zhu)營(ying)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)務(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)收(shou)(shou)(shou)入(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)比(bi)(bi)(bi)例(li)(li)為5.97%,較(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)去(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)年(nian)同(tong)(tong)期(qi)提高(gao)2.58個百(bai)(bai)分(fen)點(dian);鍋(guo)爐(lu)(lu)余熱(re)(re)利用(yong)產(chan)品(pin)(pin)(pin)收(shou)(shou)(shou)入(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)占主(zhu)營(ying)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)務(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)收(shou)(shou)(shou)入(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)比(bi)(bi)(bi)例(li)(li)為9.44%,較(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)去(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)年(nian)同(tong)(tong)期(qi)提高(gao)1.18個百(bai)(bai)分(fen)點(dian);鍋(guo)爐(lu)(lu)綜(zong)(zong)合(he)(he)改造(zao)產(chan)品(pin)(pin)(pin)收(shou)(shou)(shou)入(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)占主(zhu)營(ying)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)務(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)收(shou)(shou)(shou)入(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)比(bi)(bi)(bi)例(li)(li)為3.70%,較(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)去(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)年(nian)同(tong)(tong)期(qi)提高(gao)3.70個百(bai)(bai)分(fen)點(dian);其(qi)他產(chan)品(pin)(pin)(pin)收(shou)(shou)(shou)入(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)占主(zhu)營(ying)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)務(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)收(shou)(shou)(shou)入(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)比(bi)(bi)(bi)例(li)(li)為6.64%,較(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)去(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)年(nian)同(tong)(tong)期(qi)提高(gao)5.50個百(bai)(bai)分(fen)點(dian)。鍋(guo)爐(lu)(lu)余熱(re)(re)利用(yong)和鍋(guo)爐(lu)(lu)綜(zong)(zong)合(he)(he)改造(zao)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)務(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)收(shou)(shou)(shou)入(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)的增加,使公司營(ying)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)收(shou)(shou)(shou)入(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)結構同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)發(fa)生一定(ding)變化(hua),提升了(le)公司的凈利潤空(kong)間,總體符合(he)(he)我們前期(qi)的判斷。

管(guan)理費(fei)(fei)(fei)(fei)用(yong)率(lv)(lv)、銷售(shou)(shou)費(fei)(fei)(fei)(fei)用(yong)率(lv)(lv)有所下(xia)(xia)降。前(qian)三季度公(gong)司的管(guan)理費(fei)(fei)(fei)(fei)用(yong)實(shi)現(xian)(xian)8526萬元,較(jiao)去年同期增長12.15%,管(guan)理費(fei)(fei)(fei)(fei)用(yong)率(lv)(lv)實(shi)現(xian)(xian)9.19%,較(jiao)去年同期下(xia)(xia)降3.27個百分點,顯示公(gong)司的費(fei)(fei)(fei)(fei)用(yong)控制(zhi)良好。銷售(shou)(shou)費(fei)(fei)(fei)(fei)用(yong)實(shi)現(xian)(xian)5513萬元,較(jiao)去年同期下(xia)(xia)降38.36%,銷售(shou)(shou)費(fei)(fei)(fei)(fei)用(yong)率(lv)(lv)實(shi)現(xian)(xian)5.94%,較(jiao)去年同期下(xia)(xia)降8.74個百分點,系公(gong)司通過不斷完善(shan)產(chan)品技術,提高(gao)項目計(ji)劃可控性,完善(shan)項目實(shi)施過程中的質量控制(zhi)等(deng)措(cuo)施,產(chan)品售(shou)(shou)后維護費(fei)(fei)(fei)(fei)用(yong)同比下(xia)(xia)降。

現金流(liu)狀(zhuang)況堪憂(you),應(ying)(ying)收(shou)賬(zhang)款(kuan)回款(kuan)壓(ya)(ya)力(li)仍然(ran)較(jiao)(jiao)大。前(qian)三季(ji)度經(jing)營性(xing)現金流(liu)量凈(jing)流(liu)出20843萬元(yuan)(yuan),較(jiao)(jiao)去年同期(qi)凈(jing)流(liu)出16680萬元(yuan)(yuan),主要是公司業務量增(zeng)(zeng)加,支付(fu)的材料(liao)款(kuan)和安(an)裝費增(zeng)(zeng)加以及(ji)公司支付(fu)的票據(ju)和保函保證金增(zeng)(zeng)加所致。從應(ying)(ying)收(shou)賬(zhang)款(kuan)的情況看,前(qian)三季(ji)度應(ying)(ying)收(shou)賬(zhang)款(kuan)余額為10.04億元(yuan)(yuan),較(jiao)(jiao)年初(chu)增(zeng)(zeng)加1.79億元(yuan)(yuan),應(ying)(ying)收(shou)賬(zhang)款(kuan)的回款(kuan)壓(ya)(ya)力(li)仍然(ran)較(jiao)(jiao)大,擠壓(ya)(ya)了經(jing)營性(xing)現金流(liu),現金流(liu)狀(zhuang)況總體仍然(ran)堪憂(you)。

維持“謹慎(shen)推薦”評級(ji)。我們維持14、15、16年(nian)EPS(攤薄(bo)后(hou))分(fen)別為0.42元、0.45元、0.47元。對應14、15、16年(nian)PE分(fen)別為34倍(bei)、32倍(bei)、30倍(bei),持續關注公司的鍋爐(lu)改造業務拓(tuo)展(zhan)和期間費用的控制,繼(ji)續維持“謹慎(shen)推薦”評級(ji)。

風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)提示:低(di)氮(dan)改造業務的(de)(de)業績(ji)貢獻不達(da)預期的(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian);存在競(jing)爭對手競(jing)爭導(dao)致產品(pin)價格下(xia)降的(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian),鍋(guo)爐改造業務進(jin)展(zhan)慢于預期的(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian),宏觀經(jing)濟下(xia)行(xing)的(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)。