國電清新員工持股(gu)計劃草案(an)點(dian)評:全民(min)皆兵,向前進

類別(bie)：公司研究 機構(gou)：興業證券股份有限公司 研究員(yuan)：汪洋 日期(qi)：2014-12-16

事件:

12月13日晚間,國電清(qing)新公告員(yuan)工持(chi)股(gu)(gu)計劃草案(an):擬(ni)向不(bu)超過374名員(yuan)工發布持(chi)股(gu)(gu)計劃,涉(she)及標(biao)的(de)股(gu)(gu)票數量不(bu)超過915萬,涉(she)及股(gu)(gu)份(fen)數占(zhan)公司總股(gu)(gu)本的(de)1.72%,向員(yuan)工籌集資金總額(e)(e)上限為5000萬元,同時整個集合資產管理(li)計劃上限為2億元,優(you)先(xian)級計劃份(fen)額(e)(e)和次級計劃份(fen)額(e)(e)的(de)目標(biao)配比3:1。

點評:

員(yuan)工(gong)持(chi)股(gu)疊加(jia)(jia)股(gu)權(quan)(quan)激(ji)勵(li)(li)(li),全民(min)皆(jie)兵!此次員(yuan)工(gong)計(ji)劃(hua)草(cao)案公(gong)(gong)(gong)告,公(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)擬向員(yuan)工(gong)發布(bu)持(chi)股(gu)計(ji)劃(hua),涉(she)及(ji)(ji)股(gu)票(piao)數量不(bu)超(chao)過(guo)915萬元,涉(she)及(ji)(ji)股(gu)份數占公(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)總股(gu)本1.72%。這(zhe)次員(yuan)工(gong)持(chi)股(gu)計(ji)涉(she)及(ji)(ji)員(yuan)工(gong)374名(ming),占員(yuan)工(gong)持(chi)股(gu)計(ji)劃(hua)(草(cao)案)公(gong)(gong)(gong)告前一日公(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)員(yuan)工(gong)總數的(de)64.75%。具體到激(ji)勵(li)(li)(li)名(ming)單(dan),此次員(yuan)工(gong)計(ji)劃(hua)激(ji)勵(li)(li)(li)的(de)重點對(dui)象(xiang)(xiang)在(zai)公(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)366名(ming)普通員(yuan)工(gong),而8名(ming)董(dong)事(shi)、監事(shi)及(ji)(ji)高級管理人(ren)(ren)員(yuan)僅象(xiang)(xiang)征性參與持(chi)股(gu)計(ji)劃(hua)。此前的(de)股(gu)權(quan)(quan)激(ji)勵(li)(li)(li)方案草(cao)案的(de)重點激(ji)勵(li)(li)(li)對(dui)象(xiang)(xiang)在(zai)公(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)董(dong)事(shi)、高級管理人(ren)(ren)員(yuan)、公(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)業務(技術)骨干人(ren)(ren)員(yuan)等(deng)86人(ren)(ren)。因(yin)此,員(yuan)工(gong)持(chi)股(gu)疊加(jia)(jia)股(gu)權(quan)(quan)激(ji)勵(li)(li)(li)草(cao)案,極大擴(kuo)大公(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)激(ji)勵(li)(li)(li)對(dui)象(xiang)(xiang)覆蓋范圍,有望在(zai)公(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)形成全民(min)皆(jie)兵的(de)工(gong)作氛圍,普通員(yuan)工(gong)利(li)(li)益(yi)與公(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)未來發展(zhan)形成正反饋效應。一心向前進!根據(ju)此前的(de)股(gu)權(quan)(quan)激(ji)勵(li)(li)(li)草(cao)案所擬定的(de)行權(quan)(quan)條件(jian):以(yi)14年(nian)為(wei)基(ji)(ji)數,15-17年(nian)歸母扣非后凈(jing)(jing)利(li)(li)潤增速不(bu)低于85%、170%、270%。股(gu)權(quan)(quan)激(ji)勵(li)(li)(li)行權(quan)(quan)條件(jian)高,按(an)照(zhao)我們測算14年(nian)公(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)歸母凈(jing)(jing)利(li)(li)潤為(wei)2.7億元,以(yi)此為(wei)基(ji)(ji)準,公(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)15-17年(nian)三年(nian)凈(jing)(jing)利(li)(li)同比增速為(wei)85%、45.9%、37%,三年(nian)復合增速為(wei)54.7%,17年(nian)公(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)將形成超(chao)10億元凈(jing)(jing)利(li)(li)潤水(shui)平!公(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)在(zai)這(zhe)個(ge)時點發布(bu)員(yuan)工(gong)持(chi)股(gu)計(ji)劃(hua),員(yuan)工(gong)利(li)(li)益(yi)與公(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)高管利(li)(li)益(yi)、公(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)股(gu)東利(li)(li)益(yi)趨于一致,將有力提升(sheng)股(gu)權(quan)(quan)激(ji)勵(li)(li)(li)方案成功(gong)行權(quan)(quan)的(de)可(ke)能性。如何(he)給(gei)業績插上高飛的(de)翅膀?

1) 短(duan)期(qi)(qi)內(nei):脫(tuo)(tuo)硫(liu)(liu)改(gai)造(zao)EPC 訂(ding)(ding)(ding)單有望爆發(fa),內(nei)生支(zhi)持(chi)今(jin)(jin)、明(ming)(ming)兩(liang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)業(ye)績增長(chang)(chang)。根據脫(tuo)(tuo)硫(liu)(liu)EPC 歷史(shi)工(gong)程及改(gai)造(zao)規劃,預期(qi)(qi)今(jin)(jin)、明(ming)(ming)兩(liang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)將(jiang)(jiang)會是公司(si)(si)脫(tuo)(tuo)硫(liu)(liu)除(chu)塵EPC 改(gai)造(zao)大(da)(da)年(nian)(nian)(nian),短(duan)期(qi)(qi)內(nei)脫(tuo)(tuo)硫(liu)(liu)改(gai)造(zao)EPC 訂(ding)(ding)(ding)單有望爆發(fa)。截止到10月(yue)份,公司(si)(si)簽訂(ding)(ding)(ding)的(de)EPC 訂(ding)(ding)(ding)單達(da)5.5億元(其中脫(tuo)(tuo)硫(liu)(liu)EPC 改(gai)造(zao)較多),預計今(jin)(jin)年(nian)(nian)(nian)脫(tuo)(tuo)硫(liu)(liu)EPC 的(de)收入(ru)大(da)(da)概在(zai)8個(ge)億。公司(si)(si)EPC 工(gong)程的(de)執(zhi)(zhi)行能力(li)在(zai)20個(ge)左右,因(yin)EPC 工(gong)期(qi)(qi)較短(duan),預期(qi)(qi)明(ming)(ming)年(nian)(nian)(nian)項(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)承接能力(li)達(da)40-50個(ge)。公司(si)(si)今(jin)(jin)年(nian)(nian)(nian)投運的(de)脫(tuo)(tuo)硫(liu)(liu)BOT 項(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)包括西山(shan)武鄉(14年(nian)(nian)(nian)4月(yue))、大(da)(da)唐石(shi)柱(zhu)(zhu)(14年(nian)(nian)(nian)7月(yue))、烏沙山(shan)(14年(nian)(nian)(nian)6月(yue))、脫(tuo)(tuo)硝(xiao)BOT 項(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)包括大(da)(da)唐石(shi)柱(zhu)(zhu)、大(da)(da)唐運城、西山(shan)武鄉項(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)目(mu),這些項(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)明(ming)(ming)年(nian)(nian)(nian)將(jiang)(jiang)貢獻全(quan)年(nian)(nian)(nian)業(ye)績,這將(jiang)(jiang)是公司(si)(si)明(ming)(ming)年(nian)(nian)(nian)增量(liang)業(ye)績的(de)一(yi)個(ge)貢獻。因(yin)此,EPC 改(gai)造(zao)訂(ding)(ding)(ding)單預期(qi)(qi)放量(liang)+執(zhi)(zhi)行能力(li)提升(sheng)、運營項(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)投產(chan),內(nei)生性增長(chang)(chang)是公司(si)(si)今(jin)(jin)明(ming)(ming)兩(liang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)的(de)業(ye)績高速增長(chang)(chang)的(de)主導(dao)因(yin)素(su)。

2) 長期:外(wai)延擴張可能成為(wei)公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)發展的超預(yu)(yu)期因素。從公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)前期公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)告看,公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)擬出資1億元(yuan)與盈富(fu)泰克、北京工程咨詢(xun)公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)、錦江集(ji)團等四(si)家公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)發起(qi)設立專項產業基金(jin),基金(jin)規模為(wei)2.53億元(yuan),公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)出資占(zhan)比為(wei)39.53%,我(wo)們(men)強(qiang)調前期產業基金(jin)的成立實際上是公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)籌劃外(wai)延拓展的表(biao)征(zheng)。此(ci)前股權激(ji)勵給(gei)予公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)外(wai)延式(shi)并(bing)購一個良好的時間窗(chuang)口,我(wo)們(men)強(qiang)調公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)未(wei)來增速的超預(yu)(yu)期體現在(zai)公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)外(wai)延式(shi)轉型擴張的超預(yu)(yu)期!投資建議(yi):維(wei)持增持評級。我(wo)們(men)預(yu)(yu)測公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)14-16年EPS 為(wei)0.51、0.94、1.42元(yuan),對應PE 為(wei)54X、29X、19X。

我們認為:公司(si)員(yuan)工(gong)持股(gu)(gu)計劃(hua)疊加(jia)先(xian)前股(gu)(gu)權激勵方案,員(yuan)工(gong)、高管與股(gu)(gu)東利(li)益趨于一致(zhi),有力支撐公司(si)短期(qi)(qi)EPC 訂單的預期(qi)(qi)放量和長期(qi)(qi)外(wai)延擴張的業務多元(yuan)(yuan)轉(zhuan)型。按照17年10億元(yuan)(yuan)凈利(li)潤水(shui)平,同時(shi)給予合(he)理估值(zhi)20倍,公司(si)市值(zhi)有望達200億。

風(feng)險提(ti)示:外(wai)延并(bing)購(gou)低于預(yu)期;脫硫脫硝業(ye)務不及(ji)預(yu)期等。