中(zhong)航(hang)資(zi)本:王者歸來 國內軍工(gong)資(zi)產證(zheng)券化盛(sheng)宴(yan)唯一標的

研究機(ji)構(gou)：海通證券 分(fen)析(xi)師(shi)：丁文(wen)韜 撰(zhuan)寫日期：2014-12-23

依托大(da)股(gu)東資(zi)(zi)(zi)源,打造(zao)綜合金(jin)(jin)融(rong)(rong)平臺(tai)(tai),分享軍(jun)工行業(ye)(ye)(ye)的(de)資(zi)(zi)(zi)產(chan)(chan)(chan)證(zheng)券(quan)化紅利(li),打造(zao)中國版GECapital。中航(hang)資(zi)(zi)(zi)本是(shi)中航(hang)工業(ye)(ye)(ye)旗(qi)下唯一金(jin)(jin)融(rong)(rong)控(kong)(kong)股(gu)和產(chan)(chan)(chan)融(rong)(rong)結(jie)合平臺(tai)(tai),肩負著以金(jin)(jin)融(rong)(rong)助(zhu)推(tui)航(hang)空產(chan)(chan)(chan)業(ye)(ye)(ye)發(fa)展的(de)重(zhong)要(yao)使命。中航(hang)資(zi)(zi)(zi)本圍(wei)繞(rao)金(jin)(jin)融(rong)(rong)控(kong)(kong)股(gu)、航(hang)空產(chan)(chan)(chan)業(ye)(ye)(ye)、新興產(chan)(chan)(chan)業(ye)(ye)(ye)投(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)三大(da)板(ban)塊(kuai)開展業(ye)(ye)(ye)務(wu),以財務(wu)、信托、租賃、證(zheng)券(quan)為主(zhu)(zhu)的(de)金(jin)(jin)融(rong)(rong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)務(wu)是(shi)當前(qian)盈(ying)利(li)主(zhu)(zhu)要(yao)支柱,未(wei)(wei)來(lai)財務(wu)性實業(ye)(ye)(ye)投(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)收益占(zhan)比將逐步(bu)提升。中航(hang)工業(ye)(ye)(ye)集團目前(qian)資(zi)(zi)(zi)產(chan)(chan)(chan)證(zheng)券(quan)化率55%,未(wei)(wei)來(lai)3-5年有(you)望(wang)達到(dao)80%,中航(hang)資(zi)(zi)(zi)本是(shi)促(cu)進(jin)(jin)集團資(zi)(zi)(zi)產(chan)(chan)(chan)證(zheng)券(quan)化進(jin)(jin)程加(jia)速(su)的(de)主(zhu)(zhu)要(yao)平臺(tai)(tai)。作(zuo)為中航(hang)工業(ye)(ye)(ye)重(zhong)要(yao)的(de)融(rong)(rong)資(zi)(zi)(zi)渠道,除利(li)用金(jin)(jin)控(kong)(kong)平臺(tai)(tai)為成(cheng)員公(gong)司(si)提供金(jin)(jin)融(rong)(rong)服務(wu)外,中航(hang)資(zi)(zi)(zi)本作(zuo)為集團的(de)股(gu)權(quan)投(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)運作(zuo)平臺(tai)(tai),可(ke)以對集團成(cheng)員參股(gu),為其業(ye)(ye)(ye)務(wu)發(fa)展提供資(zi)(zi)(zi)金(jin)(jin)支持(chi),加(jia)深和拓寬產(chan)(chan)(chan)融(rong)(rong)結(jie)合的(de)深度和廣度。

金融股(gu)權(quan)進(jin)一步(bu)集中(zhong)(zhong),集團盈利能力(li)增(zeng)(zeng)強。中(zhong)(zhong)航(hang)(hang)(hang)(hang)資(zi)本公告,擬向中(zhong)(zhong)航(hang)(hang)(hang)(hang)國(guo)際、陜航(hang)(hang)(hang)(hang)電氣等17家公司(si)以定(ding)(ding)增(zeng)(zeng)換股(gu)方式(shi)發(fa)行(xing)2.78億股(gu)購買中(zhong)(zhong)航(hang)(hang)(hang)(hang)租賃(lin)(lin)30.95%、中(zhong)(zhong)航(hang)(hang)(hang)(hang)信托(tuo)16.82%、中(zhong)(zhong)航(hang)(hang)(hang)(hang)證券28.29%的股(gu)權(quan),定(ding)(ding)增(zeng)(zeng)價(jia)(jia)(jia)按(an)停牌前20個(ge)交易(yi)日(ri)均價(jia)(jia)(jia)的90%來確(que)定(ding)(ding),為15.78元/股(gu)。交易(yi)完(wan)成(cheng)后(hou),中(zhong)(zhong)航(hang)(hang)(hang)(hang)資(zi)本持有中(zhong)(zhong)航(hang)(hang)(hang)(hang)租賃(lin)(lin)、中(zhong)(zhong)航(hang)(hang)(hang)(hang)信托(tuo)、中(zhong)(zhong)航(hang)(hang)(hang)(hang)證券的股(gu)權(quan)比(bi)(bi)例(li)分(fen)別提(ti)升(sheng)至96.75%、80%和100%。收購資(zi)產(chan)評(ping)估(gu)價(jia)(jia)(jia)值分(fen)別對應(ying)三公司(si)8月(yue)末凈資(zi)產(chan)的1.44、1.8、1.36倍,換股(gu)價(jia)(jia)(jia)遠低于(yu)市場估(gu)值。收購完(wan)成(cheng)后(hou)中(zhong)(zhong)航(hang)(hang)(hang)(hang)工(gong)業及下屬公司(si)持有中(zhong)(zhong)航(hang)(hang)(hang)(hang)資(zi)本的股(gu)權(quan)比(bi)(bi)例(li)由41.68%提(ti)高至49.23%,股(gu)權(quan)的進(jin)一步(bu)集中(zhong)(zhong),提(ti)升(sheng)集團盈利能力(li)的同(tong)時,將增(zeng)(zeng)強上(shang)市公司(si)對金融子公司(si)的控制力(li)度,并提(ti)高中(zhong)(zhong)航(hang)(hang)(hang)(hang)工(gong)業后(hou)續資(zi)本運作空間。

金(jin)控平臺貢獻穩(wen)定(ding)盈(ying)利,租(zu)(zu)賃(lin)(lin)和證(zheng)券業(ye)(ye)務增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)空間巨(ju)大。1)租(zu)(zu)賃(lin)(lin)業(ye)(ye)務為未來(lai)(lai)重點發展方向(xiang),此次14億定(ding)增(zeng)(zeng)擬全部用于增(zeng)(zeng)加中(zhong)航租(zu)(zu)賃(lin)(lin)資(zi)(zi)本金(jin),飛機租(zu)(zu)賃(lin)(lin)或成盈(ying)利增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)主要(yao)來(lai)(lai)源。2)財(cai)務公司資(zi)(zi)金(jin)歸集(ji)率提升推動資(zi)(zi)產規模和盈(ying)利能力穩(wen)步(bu)擴張。預(yu)計凈利潤未來(lai)(lai)3年(nian)將(jiang)保持(chi)20%以上(shang)的(de)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)。3)中(zhong)航信托預(yu)計受(shou)行業(ye)(ye)因素,未來(lai)(lai)三年(nian)同比增(zeng)(zeng)速(su)將(jiang)有所(suo)放緩。4)證(zheng)券業(ye)(ye)務發展迅速(su),預(yu)計未來(lai)(lai)集(ji)團將(jiang)在項目資(zi)(zi)源和資(zi)(zi)本金(jin)上(shang)都給予大力支持(chi),2014年(nian)凈利潤預(yu)計超(chao)過3億元,未來(lai)(lai)3年(nian)增(zeng)(zeng)速(su)預(yu)計超(chao)過40%。

創(chuang)投(tou)業務(wu)將(jiang)成為新的增長引(yin)擎。中(zhong)航資本(ben)(ben)(ben)通過定增等方式投(tou)資中(zhong)航工(gong)業旗下公司,分享(xiang)公司成長并擇機退出。中(zhong)航資本(ben)(ben)(ben)依托中(zhong)航工(gong)業旗下20多家上市(shi)公司和200多家下屬公司,優質項目資源豐富,未來創(chuang)投(tou)業務(wu)利潤貢獻(xian)有望達到50%。以2014年為例(li),2季度中(zhong)航資本(ben)(ben)(ben)完成減持西飛(fei)股份股權確認投(tou)資收(shou)益超過6億元,且目前仍有30億左右浮盈。中(zhong)航產投(tou)9月底2億元參與寶勝股份定增、11月5億元參與中(zhong)航機電定增,預計(ji)均(jun)將(jiang)獲得可觀的投(tou)資回報。

目標(biao)價29.2元,給予"買入"評級。采(cai)用分部(bu)估值法,中航(hang)資本公(gong)(gong)(gong)允價值為494億,對應(ying)26.48元/股。若(ruo)考慮(lv)此次定增換(huan)股,則合理價值為29.2元/股。公(gong)(gong)(gong)司停(ting)牌前(qian)股價18.83元,公(gong)(gong)(gong)司停(ting)牌期間(jian)軍工行(xing)業和(he)金元金融(rong)行(xing)業均(jun)實現(xian)40%以上漲幅,未來三個(ge)月內預期公(gong)(gong)(gong)司股價還將有(you)30%-50%的上漲空間(jian),首次覆蓋給予"買入"評級。

主(zhu)要(yao)不確(que)定因(yin)素:集團資(zi)產證券(quan)化低于預期,信托(tuo)業務系統性風險。