藍英(ying)裝備(bei):三季度環比好(hao)轉,現金(jin)流(liu)大幅改善

藍英裝備(bei) 300293 機械(xie)行業

研究(jiu)機構：國海證券 分析師：后立堯 撰寫日期(qi)：2014-10-27

事(shi)件:公司公告2014年前三季度(du)凈利潤下(xia)滑13.7%,三季度(du)單季度(du)增長3.1%。

評論:

三(san)季(ji)(ji)度業績環比好轉(zhuan),經(jing)營性(xing)現(xian)金流大幅增(zeng)長(chang),管廊(lang)項(xiang)(xiang)目回款慢(man)但一定會(hui)收(shou)(shou)回。2014年(nian)前三(san)季(ji)(ji)度收(shou)(shou)入(ru)同(tong)比下降(jiang)18.6%,凈利(li)(li)潤下降(jiang)13.7%,主(zhu)要原因是2014年(nian)上半年(nian)沈(shen)陽市渾南新(xin)城綜合管廊(lang)工程(cheng)建(jian)設項(xiang)(xiang)目收(shou)(shou)入(ru)確認延后,因此公(gong)司前三(san)季(ji)(ji)度整體利(li)(li)潤有所(suo)下降(jiang),但管廊(lang)項(xiang)(xiang)目從10月起就開(kai)始(shi)回款,根據協議本月政府應支付2.64億元。公(gong)司第三(san)季(ji)(ji)度收(shou)(shou)入(ru)與利(li)(li)潤較同(tong)比分別增(zeng)長(chang)4.1%和3.1%,環比改善明顯。另外,2014年(nian)前三(san)季(ji)(ji)度公(gong)司經(jing)營性(xing)現(xian)金流凈額為9793.6萬(wan)元,同(tong)比增(zeng)長(chang)150.9%。說明公(gong)司由收(shou)(shou)入(ru)導(dao)向(xiang)(xiang)變為現(xian)金流導(dao)向(xiang)(xiang)的策略取得了效果。

公(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)打造三大主(zhu)業(ye):智(zhi)(zhi)慧(hui)城市(shi)、智(zhi)(zhi)能(neng)裝(zhuang)備(bei)、系統(tong)集成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)。公(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)董事長技術出身,最(zui)早在沈(shen)陽機床(chuang)研究院,后來(lai)給(gei)西門子代理起家,接著進入(ru)(ru)(ru)冶(ye)金、電(dian)力、市(shi)政(zheng)等自(zi)動(dong)化系統(tong)集成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)領(ling)域,又(you)從輪(lun)胎自(zi)動(dong)化系統(tong)集成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)進入(ru)(ru)(ru)輪(lun)胎成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)型(xing)機制(zhi)造。公(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)傳(chuan)統(tong)主(zhu)業(ye)是輪(lun)胎成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)型(xing)機,2012年(nian)(nian)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)立兩個(ge)子公(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)做智(zhi)(zhi)慧(hui)城市(shi)、工(gong)廠自(zi)動(dong)化業(ye)務(wu),形成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)了智(zhi)(zhi)慧(hui)城市(shi)、智(zhi)(zhi)能(neng)裝(zhuang)備(bei)、系統(tong)集成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)3大主(zhu)業(ye)。公(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)未來(lai)三年(nian)(nian)內的產品發展計劃包括(kuo):①高(gao)端(duan)輪(lun)胎成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)型(xing)機;②耗能(neng)工(gong)業(ye)智(zhi)(zhi)能(neng)單(dan)元(yuan)(yuan)集成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)系統(tong);③柔性工(gong)業(ye)物(wu)料輸(shu)送系統(tong);④高(gao)端(duan)數控機床(chuang)及電(dian)主(zhu)軸單(dan)元(yuan)(yuan);⑤自(zi)動(dong)化專(zhuan)用(yong)設備(bei)(或生產線)電(dian)控系統(tong)解(jie)決方案(an);⑥智(zhi)(zhi)慧(hui)城市(shi)系統(tong)解(jie)決方案(an)等。公(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)2012年(nian)(nian)完成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)業(ye)務(wu)布(bu)局,12、13年(nian)(nian)收(shou)入(ru)(ru)(ru)增速分別高(gao)達103%、73%,14年(nian)(nian)由于政(zheng)府(fu)管廊項(xiang)目(mu)資金到(dao)位問題,拖累(lei)了公(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)業(ye)績,從15年(nian)(nian)開始公(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)重(zhong)新走(zou)到(dao)快速發展期(qi),預測15年(nian)(nian)后公(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)每年(nian)(nian)將保(bao)持(chi)30%左(zuo)右的凈利潤增速。

業務(wu)一:智能裝備業務(wu):公司的智能裝備包括機(ji)專機(ji)(成(cheng)型機(ji),機(ji)械事業部)、電力自動化(配電、儀表)。

(1).輪(lun)(lun)胎(tai)(tai)成(cheng)(cheng)型(xing)(xing)(xing)設(she)備(bei)(bei):公(gong)司(si)(si)(si)06年(nian)進(jin)入輪(lun)(lun)胎(tai)(tai)成(cheng)(cheng)型(xing)(xing)(xing)機(ji)(ji)(ji)市(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang),公(gong)司(si)(si)(si)多做商用車(che),13年(nian)開始做半(ban)鋼胎(tai)(tai)。競(jing)爭對手是軟控股份、賽象科技(ji),公(gong)司(si)(si)(si)只做最核(he)心的(de)部分。目前國(guo)(guo)內子午線輪(lun)(lun)胎(tai)(tai)成(cheng)(cheng)型(xing)(xing)(xing)機(ji)(ji)(ji)市(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)年(nian)需(xu)求量(liang)約500套,軟控銷(xiao)(xiao)量(liang)約100套,藍(lan)英(ying)裝備(bei)(bei)約60套。預計(ji)13年(nian)銷(xiao)(xiao)量(liang)約60套。公(gong)司(si)(si)(si)目前成(cheng)(cheng)型(xing)(xing)(xing)機(ji)(ji)(ji)產品為全(quan)鋼一次成(cheng)(cheng)型(xing)(xing)(xing)機(ji)(ji)(ji),均價大概500多萬(wan),國(guo)(guo)內半(ban)鋼子午線輪(lun)(lun)胎(tai)(tai)成(cheng)(cheng)型(xing)(xing)(xing)機(ji)(ji)(ji)主(zhu)要依靠進(jin)口,藍(lan)英(ying)裝備(bei)(bei)在研的(de)半(ban)鋼成(cheng)(cheng)型(xing)(xing)(xing)機(ji)(ji)(ji)預計(ji)均價500多萬(wan),毛利率(lv)和(he)全(quan)鋼的(de)差不多。從(cong)(cong)市(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)需(xu)求來(lai)看主(zhu)要來(lai)自增(zeng)量(liang)市(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)和(he)存量(liang)市(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)更(geng)新(xin)需(xu)求。從(cong)(cong)新(xin)增(zeng)市(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)來(lai)看,客戶在經歷了2011-2012年(nian)低迷期(qi)之(zhi)后,隨著汽車(che)銷(xiao)(xiao)量(liang)好轉(zhuan)和(he)保(bao)有量(liang)增(zeng)加,下游客戶2013年(nian)開始擴充產能,公(gong)司(si)(si)(si)訂單也隨之(zhi)增(zeng)多。從(cong)(cong)更(geng)新(xin)市(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)來(lai)看,目前我國(guo)(guo)輪(lun)(lun)胎(tai)(tai)成(cheng)(cheng)型(xing)(xing)(xing)機(ji)(ji)(ji)市(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)保(bao)有量(liang)在2000多臺,多是2003年(nian)后購置的(de),全(quan)鋼和(he)半(ban)鋼比例(li)大概1:1左右(you),輪(lun)(lun)胎(tai)(tai)成(cheng)(cheng)型(xing)(xing)(xing)機(ji)(ji)(ji)壽(shou)命10年(nian)左右(you),更(geng)新(xin)需(xu)求已開始釋放。

(2).電(dian)(dian)力(li)自動(dong)(dong)化(hua)(hua):公司(si)自動(dong)(dong)化(hua)(hua)項目還涉(she)及(ji)到冶金、節能、市政(zheng)、地鐵等領域。電(dian)(dian)力(li)做發電(dian)(dian)+輸送(song)電(dian)(dian)自動(dong)(dong)化(hua)(hua),13年(nian)公司(si)電(dian)(dian)力(li)行(xing)業收入將數倍增(zeng)長。水處理(li)方面公司(si)主(zhu)要做市政(zheng)、凈水、污水處理(li)中的三電(dian)(dian)及(ji)自動(dong)(dong)化(hua)(hua)改(gai)造。冶金行(xing)業公司(si)主(zhu)要做節能環保型加熱爐(lu)控制(zhi)系統等。

(3).參股進軍機床(chuang)(chuang)電(dian)主軸市場:公司與(yu)德國DVS合作(zuo)成立聯營(ying)公司,主要生(sheng)產高端數(shu)控機床(chuang)(chuang)及電(dian)主軸單元(yuan),國內年需求量約(yue)1萬根。未來電(dian)主軸替(ti)代人工及皮帶業務前景廣闊。

業務(wu)二(er):智慧城(cheng)市:管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)廊(lang)(lang)(lang)(lang)(lang)項(xiang)目(mu)(mu)具備先發(fa)優勢,回款沒有(you)風險:公(gong)(gong)司(si)對智能化(hua)城(cheng)市產業鏈中的(de)安防、消(xiao)防、節(jie)能減排(pai)、再(zai)生(sheng)資(zi)源等(deng)進行全(quan)面布局。公(gong)(gong)司(si)12年(nian)以BT方式(shi)中標沈陽管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)廊(lang)(lang)(lang)(lang)(lang)項(xiang)目(mu)(mu),合同總金(jin)額約為11億(yi),管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)廊(lang)(lang)(lang)(lang)(lang)項(xiang)目(mu)(mu)適合新(xin)城(cheng)區建(jian)設(she),老(lao)城(cheng)市做成本高(gao)。長期(qi)(qi)來看,管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)廊(lang)(lang)(lang)(lang)(lang)可以節(jie)省土(tu)地,經濟效益顯(xian)著。根(gen)據公(gong)(gong)司(si)9月(yue)(yue)披露的(de)補充協議,管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)廊(lang)(lang)(lang)(lang)(lang)一(yi)期(qi)(qi)已于2013年(nian)10月(yue)(yue)底完成交付(fu)進入回購(gou)期(qi)(qi),2014/10、2015/10和2016/10月(yue)(yue)分(fen)(fen)別支(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)付(fu)2.64/2.85/2.71億(yi)元;二(er)期(qi)(qi)將(jiang)于2015年(nian)6月(yue)(yue)進入回購(gou)期(qi)(qi),剩余約2.6億(yi)元分(fen)(fen)三年(nian)支(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)付(fu)。另外,公(gong)(gong)司(si)10月(yue)(yue)公(gong)(gong)告(gao)發(fa)行2.6億(yi)公(gong)(gong)司(si)債獲批,將(jiang)為公(gong)(gong)司(si)管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)廊(lang)(lang)(lang)(lang)(lang)項(xiang)目(mu)(mu)提供一(yi)定資(zi)金(jin)支(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)持。受部分(fen)(fen)地段征地、拆(chai)遷等(deng)前(qian)期(qi)(qi)工(gong)(gong)作(zuo)影響鑒(jian)于甲方前(qian)期(qi)(qi)工(gong)(gong)作(zuo)原因,導致管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)廊(lang)(lang)(lang)(lang)(lang)二(er)期(qi)(qi)的(de)建(jian)設(she)期(qi)(qi)間延長。經合同各(ge)方確(que)定管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)廊(lang)(lang)(lang)(lang)(lang)二(er)期(qi)(qi)的(de)建(jian)設(she)期(qi)(qi)自2012/10-2015/6,管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)廊(lang)(lang)(lang)(lang)(lang)二(er)期(qi)(qi)的(de)回購(gou)期(qi)(qi)自2015/6-2018/6,管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)廊(lang)(lang)(lang)(lang)(lang)二(er)期(qi)(qi)的(de)回購(gou)價款支(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)付(fu)時間分(fen)(fen)別為2016/6、2017/6、2018/6月(yue)(yue)。我們判斷公(gong)(gong)司(si)憑借項(xiang)目(mu)(mu)經驗后續可能接到其(qi)他城(cheng)市管(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)廊(lang)(lang)(lang)(lang)(lang)項(xiang)目(mu)(mu)訂(ding)單。

業(ye)務三:系統集(ji)成(cheng)(工(gong)廠(chang)(chang)(chang)數(shu)字化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)):數(shu)字化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)提升(sheng)管理效(xiao)率,賣的(de)(de)是設備+管理:工(gong)廠(chang)(chang)(chang)自動(dong)(dong)化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)經歷(li)了3個階段:單機-連線-車間自動(dong)(dong)化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)。之(zhi)前公(gong)司(si)一臺(tai)成(cheng)型機600萬,10臺(tai)賣6000萬,現在讓客(ke)(ke)戶加1000萬把數(shu)字化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)車間改造。公(gong)司(si)的(de)(de)理念是“通(tong)過數(shu)字化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)把各生(sheng)產流程(cheng)(cheng)數(shu)字表現出來(lai),有(you)助于(yu)優(you)(you)化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)流程(cheng)(cheng)、提高績效(xiao),并激發(fa)出工(gong)人的(de)(de)工(gong)作積極性”。對客(ke)(ke)戶來(lai)說不僅可以提高生(sheng)產效(xiao)率,還能減(jian)少管理費用。今年公(gong)司(si)數(shu)字化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)工(gong)廠(chang)(chang)(chang)業(ye)務發(fa)展(zhan)很快,1個工(gong)廠(chang)(chang)(chang)的(de)(de)1個車間改造收費就幾千萬。公(gong)司(si)做好數(shu)字化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)工(gong)廠(chang)(chang)(chang)有(you)三大優(you)(you)勢:行業(ye)知名度、工(gong)藝熟(工(gong)藝改造、固(gu)化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua))、IT工(gong)人。

投資建議:預計公司14/15/16年EPS為(wei)0.33/0.45/0/59元,對應PE為(wei)45/31/24倍(bei),給予“增持”評級(ji)。

風險提示:1.傳(chuan)統業務(wu)競(jing)爭加(jia)劇,毛利率(lv)下滑。2.管廊項目(mu)收入繼續延遲,拖累(lei)公司業績(ji)。