今年(nian)(nian)前兩個(ge)月，我國(guo)宏觀經(jing)濟下行壓(ya)力繼續(xu)增(zeng)加，規(gui)模以(yi)上(shang)工業增(zeng)加值同比(bi)實際增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)6.8%，創出(chu)2009年(nian)(nian)以(yi)來(lai)新低(di)；固定(ding)資產(chan)(chan)投資同比(bi)名義增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)13.9%，增(zeng)幅(fu)較(jiao)(jiao)上(shang)年(nian)(nian)同期(qi)(qi)和(he)上(shang)年(nian)(nian)分(fen)別(bie)下降(jiang)4個(ge)和(he)1.8個(ge)百分(fen)點。房(fang)地產(chan)(chan)業拖(tuo)累較(jiao)(jiao)大(da)，全國(guo)房(fang)地產(chan)(chan)開發投資同比(bi)名義增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)10.4%，增(zeng)幅(fu)較(jiao)(jiao)上(shang)年(nian)(nian)同期(qi)(qi)和(he)上(shang)年(nian)(nian)分(fen)別(bie)下降(jiang)8.9個(ge)和(he)0.1個(ge)百分(fen)點；商品房(fang)銷售面(mian)積同比(bi)下降(jiang)16.3%，降(jiang)幅(fu)繼續(xu)擴大(da)。在(zai)承認宏觀經(jing)濟下行壓(ya)力增(zeng)大(da)的同時，我們也應該看到當前宏觀經(jing)濟積極因(yin)素(su)正在(zai)積聚，新經(jing)濟增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)動力在(zai)孕育中增(zeng)強。

經濟前景預(yu)期整體(ti)樂觀

我(wo)國(guo)經(jing)(jing)(jing)濟(ji)(ji)(ji)由過去高速(su)增(zeng)長(chang)向(xiang)中(zhong)高速(su)增(zeng)長(chang)新常(chang)態回(hui)歸，已經(jing)(jing)(jing)成為(wei)社會基(ji)本共識。雖然受(shou)房地(di)產(chan)(chan)業調整拖累(lei)經(jing)(jing)(jing)濟(ji)(ji)(ji)下行(xing)壓力有所增(zeng)加，但(dan)這也是經(jing)(jing)(jing)濟(ji)(ji)(ji)結構(gou)調整不可逾越(yue)的階段，經(jing)(jing)(jing)濟(ji)(ji)(ji)社會基(ji)本面也不支持房地(di)產(chan)(chan)業再現過去擴張。從社會預(yu)(yu)期(qi)(qi)看，主流觀點對我(wo)國(guo)經(jing)(jing)(jing)濟(ji)(ji)(ji)前景(jing)預(yu)(yu)期(qi)(qi)整體(ti)樂(le)觀。股(gu)(gu)(gu)票(piao)市場(chang)是國(guo)民經(jing)(jing)(jing)濟(ji)(ji)(ji)晴雨表，當前股(gu)(gu)(gu)票(piao)指數上(shang)行(xing)與宏觀經(jing)(jing)(jing)濟(ji)(ji)(ji)下行(xing)并沒有背(bei)離，主要是因(yin)為(wei)股(gu)(gu)(gu)票(piao)交(jiao)易價(jia)格更多反映未(wei)(wei)來預(yu)(yu)期(qi)(qi)。隨著(zhu)經(jing)(jing)(jing)濟(ji)(ji)(ji)金(jin)融改革(ge)措施不斷(duan)推出，上(shang)市公司將(jiang)形成新的盈利(li)(li)增(zeng)長(chang)點，不斷(duan)上(shang)漲(zhang)的股(gu)(gu)(gu)價(jia)恰恰是對未(wei)(wei)來中(zhong)國(guo)經(jing)(jing)(jing)濟(ji)(ji)(ji)企穩(wen)回(hui)升(sheng)預(yu)(yu)期(qi)(qi)的提前釋放，也是對改革(ge)釋放經(jing)(jing)(jing)濟(ji)(ji)(ji)增(zeng)長(chang)紅(hong)利(li)(li)的堅定信念。從上(shang)市公司業績發布(bu)情況看，戰略性新型產(chan)(chan)業領(ling)域(yu)的公司2014年盈利(li)(li)取得(de)了較快(kuai)增(zeng)長(chang)。

當(dang)前(qian)宏觀(guan)經濟(ji)(ji)(ji)下行(xing)是消除經濟(ji)(ji)(ji)結構調整障礙的結果。深(shen)入分析各部門(men)發(fa)(fa)展表現(xian)不難(nan)發(fa)(fa)現(xian)，出(chu)現(xian)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)放緩和回落的大多(duo)是需要(yao)調整的部門(men)或產(chan)(chan)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)。房地(di)產(chan)(chan)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)放緩有必然性，一(yi)方面是因為(wei)(wei)住宅需求在(zai)過去(qu)已集中過度釋放，導(dao)致未(wei)來需求動力減(jian)弱(ruo)；另一(yi)方面是因為(wei)(wei)房價對于普通居民收入和房租的過度偏離，顯(xian)著增(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)(jia)了宏觀(guan)經濟(ji)(ji)(ji)金(jin)(jin)(jin)融(rong)運行(xing)風(feng)險(xian)。從生產(chan)(chan)者物價指數(PPI)走勢(shi)看，今年前(qian)兩個(ge)月價格回落較大的行(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)有煤(mei)炭開采和洗(xi)(xi)選業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(-13%)、石(shi)油和天然氣開采業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(-37.6%)、黑色(se)(se)金(jin)(jin)(jin)屬礦采選業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(-20.7%)、黑色(se)(se)金(jin)(jin)(jin)屬冶煉和壓(ya)延(yan)加(jia)(jia)工業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(-12.4%)，都(dou)與(yu)產(chan)(chan)能過剩(sheng)行(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)存在(zai)密切關系。黑色(se)(se)金(jin)(jin)(jin)屬冶煉和壓(ya)延(yan)加(jia)(jia)工業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)增(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)(jia)值同比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)3.5%，增(zeng)(zeng)速比(bi)規模(mo)以(yi)上(shang)工業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)低(di)(di)3.3個(ge)百分點；煤(mei)炭開采和洗(xi)(xi)選業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)3.6%，比(bi)規模(mo)以(yi)上(shang)工業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)低(di)(di)3.2個(ge)百分點。這些經濟(ji)(ji)(ji)部門(men)與(yu)產(chan)(chan)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)本身(shen)屬于經濟(ji)(ji)(ji)結構調整內(nei)容，調整本身(shen)就會(hui)引發(fa)(fa)產(chan)(chan)出(chu)下降，拖累(lei)宏觀(guan)經濟(ji)(ji)(ji)表現(xian)。但同時，也會(hui)明顯(xian)降低(di)(di)宏觀(guan)經濟(ji)(ji)(ji)金(jin)(jin)(jin)融(rong)運行(xing)風(feng)險(xian)，釋放未(wei)來經濟(ji)(ji)(ji)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)空間。

新經濟增長動力

正孕育形成

勞動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)力(li)與資本形成(cheng)是(shi)經(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)濟(ji)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)兩大重要因(yin)素(su)(su)(su)，但絕非決定因(yin)素(su)(su)(su)。現(xian)代經(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)濟(ji)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)實踐(jian)表(biao)明(ming)，技(ji)術(shu)創新(xin)才是(shi)推動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)內涵增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)的主要途(tu)徑。當(dang)前(qian)我(wo)(wo)國(guo)(guo)正加(jia)快推進經(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)濟(ji)發(fa)展方(fang)式轉變和(he)(he)經(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)濟(ji)結(jie)構調整，創新(xin)驅動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)發(fa)展已經(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)成(cheng)為(wei)社(she)會共識，也是(shi)我(wo)(wo)國(guo)(guo)經(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)濟(ji)發(fa)展戰略選擇。在政(zheng)府引(yin)導(dao)和(he)(he)市場選擇下，我(wo)(wo)國(guo)(guo)創新(xin)驅動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)發(fa)展積極因(yin)素(su)(su)(su)正在凝聚。高(gao)技(ji)術(shu)產(chan)(chan)業(ye)(ye)(ye)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)較快，今(jin)年(nian)前(qian)兩個月(yue)高(gao)技(ji)術(shu)產(chan)(chan)業(ye)(ye)(ye)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)值同比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)11.2%，增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)比(bi)規模(mo)以上(shang)(shang)工業(ye)(ye)(ye)快4.4個百(bai)分點(dian)(dian)。其中(zhong)，科技(ji)進步帶(dai)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)航空、航天器(qi)及(ji)設(she)備(bei)制造業(ye)(ye)(ye)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)17.4%。我(wo)(wo)國(guo)(guo)消(xiao)費潛力(li)巨大，汽(qi)車(che)(che)產(chan)(chan)業(ye)(ye)(ye)更新(xin)升級和(he)(he)節能環保(bao)將給宏觀(guan)(guan)經(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)濟(ji)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)注入新(xin)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)力(li)。今(jin)年(nian)前(qian)兩個月(yue)，我(wo)(wo)國(guo)(guo)新(xin)能源(yuan)汽(qi)車(che)(che)產(chan)(chan)量同比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)2.8倍(bei)；其中(zhong)，純(chun)電動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)汽(qi)車(che)(che)同比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)3.4倍(bei)，插電式混合動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)力(li)汽(qi)車(che)(che)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)2.3倍(bei)。如(ru)果我(wo)(wo)國(guo)(guo)純(chun)電動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)汽(qi)車(che)(che)技(ji)術(shu)取得更大突破，充電樁建設(she)更加(jia)普及(ji)，就(jiu)當(dang)前(qian)我(wo)(wo)國(guo)(guo)2.64億輛機動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)車(che)(che)在未來(lai)進行逐步置換，將會形成(cheng)巨大產(chan)(chan)值，并(bing)帶(dai)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)相(xiang)關產(chan)(chan)業(ye)(ye)(ye)發(fa)展。此外，互聯(lian)(lian)網(wang)+技(ji)術(shu)與傳(chuan)統產(chan)(chan)業(ye)(ye)(ye)結(jie)合，成(cheng)為(wei)新(xin)經(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)濟(ji)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)力(li)源(yuan)之(zhi)一。全國(guo)(guo)網(wang)絡銷售繼續呈現(xian)高(gao)速(su)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)，網(wang)上(shang)(shang)商品(pin)零售拉動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)社(she)會消(xiao)費品(pin)零售總(zong)額(e)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)3個百(bai)分點(dian)(dian)，帶(dai)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)快遞行業(ye)(ye)(ye)快速(su)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)。互聯(lian)(lian)網(wang)金融在我(wo)(wo)國(guo)(guo)呈現(xian)出蓬勃發(fa)展態(tai)勢(shi)。還(huan)有，大眾創業(ye)(ye)(ye)氛(fen)圍(wei)正在形成(cheng)，今(jin)年(nian)1月(yue)份，全國(guo)(guo)新(xin)登記注冊市場主體同比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)14.4%，其中(zhong)新(xin)登記企業(ye)(ye)(ye)34.8萬戶(hu)，增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)37.7%。這(zhe)些情況表(biao)明(ming)，我(wo)(wo)國(guo)(guo)經(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)濟(ji)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)力(li)轉換有序，積極因(yin)素(su)(su)(su)在增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)多，宏觀(guan)(guan)經(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)濟(ji)表(biao)現(xian)并(bing)沒(mei)有想像中(zhong)悲觀(guan)(guan)。

期待貨幣大量放水

并不現實

今年2月(yue)我國(guo)(guo)新增人民(min)幣(bi)貸(dai)款1.02萬(wan)億，同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)多增3768億元；2月(yue)末M2同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)增長12.5%，增速比(bi)(bi)上(shang)月(yue)末高1.7個百分點(dian)，貨(huo)(huo)幣(bi)環(huan)境整體適(shi)(shi)度(du)。應對宏(hong)觀經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)下(xia)行壓力，客(ke)觀上(shang)需要貨(huo)(huo)幣(bi)政(zheng)策(ce)相機抉擇，通過(guo)(guo)貨(huo)(huo)幣(bi)政(zheng)策(ce)工具操(cao)作支持實(shi)體經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)發展，但這(zhe)并(bing)不(bu)意味著需要出臺(tai)中國(guo)(guo)版的(de)量(liang)化寬松(QE)。僅(jin)僅(jin)依靠(kao)貨(huo)(huo)幣(bi)政(zheng)策(ce)并(bing)不(bu)能形(xing)成經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)增長動力。美(mei)國(guo)(guo)經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)復蘇(su)雖然是在(zai)(zai)QE環(huan)境下(xia)形(xing)成，但在(zai)(zai)此過(guo)(guo)程(cheng)中的(de)去杠(gang)桿才是關鍵所(suo)在(zai)(zai)。隨著我國(guo)(guo)實(shi)體經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)債務(wu)率水平(ping)上(shang)升，繼續加杠(gang)桿空(kong)間縮小。過(guo)(guo)去貨(huo)(huo)幣(bi)政(zheng)策(ce)實(shi)踐都已經(jing)(jing)表明(ming)我國(guo)(guo)不(bu)適(shi)(shi)宜(yi)采用貨(huo)(huo)幣(bi)“大水漫(man)灌”的(de)調控(kong)方式。只(zhi)有堅持穩健貨(huo)(huo)幣(bi)政(zheng)策(ce)取向，才能有助于創造適(shi)(shi)宜(yi)的(de)金(jin)融(rong)環(huan)境。

認識經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)新常(chang)(chang)態(tai)，適應經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)新常(chang)(chang)態(tai)，更(geng)需要(yao)在經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)新常(chang)(chang)態(tai)下進一步創業創新。我國(guo)經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)發展(zhan)潛力巨大(da)，大(da)眾(zhong)創業致(zhi)(zhi)富愿(yuan)望強烈，再加(jia)上改革釋放紅利，未(wei)來我國(guo)經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)回升并不遙(yao)遠(yuan)。當(dang)前社會(hui)與市場均需要(yao)堅定我國(guo)經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)發展(zhan)信心(xin)。而社會(hui)信心(xin)向一致(zhi)(zhi)經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)行動轉化，勢必加(jia)快宏觀(guan)經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)回升的時刻到來。