證券(quan)時報(bao) 2014-04-30 10:48:12
民(min)間(jian)資(zi)本投資(zi)產能(neng)過(guo)剩的鋼鐵產業,無異于“飲鴆止渴”,它于國(guo)于民(min)都將是巨(ju)大損害。
中(zhong)鋼(gang)(gang)協發布(bu)數據顯(xian)示,一季度,鋼(gang)(gang)鐵行業(ye)全國固定(ding)資(zi)(zi)產投(tou)資(zi)(zi)893億元(yuan),同(tong)比(bi)下(xia)降3.34%;其(qi)中(zhong)民(min)間固定(ding)資(zi)(zi)產投(tou)資(zi)(zi)716億元(yuan),同(tong)比(bi)增長6.65%;鋼(gang)(gang)鐵工業(ye)民(min)間固定(ding)資(zi)(zi)產投(tou)資(zi)(zi)占總投(tou)資(zi)(zi)80.18%。
在鋼(gang)鐵(tie)行業(ye)(ye)(ye)固定資(zi)(zi)產(chan)(chan)投(tou)(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)同(tong)(tong)比下降的(de)情況下,民(min)(min)間投(tou)(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)卻逆(ni)勢(shi)增長,已(yi)占全行業(ye)(ye)(ye)固定資(zi)(zi)產(chan)(chan)投(tou)(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)八成以上。民(min)(min)間資(zi)(zi)本(ben)這一逆(ni)勢(shi)而動(dong)的(de)行為確實(shi)值得關注和警(jing)惕(ti)。這種投(tou)(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)傾向事關重大,它直接(jie)關系到民(min)(min)間資(zi)(zi)本(ben)自身投(tou)(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)安(an)全、盈(ying)利以及可(ke)持續(xu)性。700多億民(min)(min)間資(zi)(zi)本(ben)涌入本(ben)已(yi)屬(shu)于過(guo)剩(sheng)產(chan)(chan)能的(de)鋼(gang)鐵(tie)行業(ye)(ye)(ye),其風險(xian)可(ke)想而知,如(ru)果(guo)(guo)在鋼(gang)鐵(tie)行業(ye)(ye)(ye)整體產(chan)(chan)能形勢(shi)沒有好轉的(de)情況下,民(min)(min)間資(zi)(zi)本(ben)這種投(tou)(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)行為無異于飛(fei)蛾(e)撲火(huo),一些投(tou)(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)很可(ke)能有打水(shui)漂(piao)的(de)危險(xian)。如(ru)果(guo)(guo)最終遭(zao)受(shou)損(sun)失(shi),將(jiang)(jiang)會挫傷民(min)(min)間資(zi)(zi)本(ben)投(tou)(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)信(xin)心(xin),也(ye)會對民(min)(min)間資(zi)(zi)本(ben)進入國家開放的(de)產(chan)(chan)業(ye)(ye)(ye)領域產(chan)(chan)生(sheng)心(xin)理“陰(yin)影”,對改變中國整體投(tou)(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)結構(gou)將(jiang)(jiang)帶來(lai)不(bu)利影響。同(tong)(tong)時,它還會使鋼(gang)鐵(tie)行業(ye)(ye)(ye)產(chan)(chan)能過(guo)剩(sheng)雪上加(jia)霜,延緩(huan)國家產(chan)(chan)業(ye)(ye)(ye)結構(gou)調整戰略目標的(de)順利實(shi)施(shi),會加(jia)劇(ju)社(she)會資(zi)(zi)源(yuan)浪費。
民(min)(min)(min)(min)(min)間(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)本(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)投(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)鋼(gang)鐵(tie)(tie)行(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)有(you)相(xiang)當的(de)(de)風險,相(xiang)信民(min)(min)(min)(min)(min)間(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)本(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)所有(you)者也(ye)有(you)比較清醒(xing)的(de)(de)認識(shi),它(ta)們對鋼(gang)鐵(tie)(tie)產(chan)能過(guo)(guo)剩的(de)(de)形勢應該有(you)比較客觀(guan)的(de)(de)把(ba)(ba)(ba)握,但為(wei)何還要在這種(zhong)(zhong)不(bu)(bu)利的(de)(de)形勢下逆(ni)勢而(er)上(shang)呢?原(yuan)因(yin)其(qi)實(shi)不(bu)(bu)言自明:一(yi)方(fang)(fang)(fang)面(mian),我國(guo)民(min)(min)(min)(min)(min)間(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)本(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)長(chang)期(qi)(qi)受到政(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)策(ce)壓制和(he)行(xing)(xing)政(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)歧視,盡(jin)管(guan)目前國(guo)家(jia)對民(min)(min)(min)(min)(min)間(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)本(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)進入壟斷產(chan)業(ye)(ye)領域實(shi)行(xing)(xing)了(le)(le)系列(lie)開(kai)(kai)放政(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)策(ce),也(ye)打破了(le)(le)不(bu)(bu)少行(xing)(xing)政(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)“壁壘(lei)”,但“政(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)策(ce)門、玻(bo)璃(li)門、旋轉門”依(yi)然沒有(you)完全破除。民(min)(min)(min)(min)(min)間(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)本(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)仍然把(ba)(ba)(ba)鋼(gang)鐵(tie)(tie)行(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)視為(wei)難得的(de)(de)投(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)機(ji)遇,意圖“搶(qiang)灘占點(dian)”,力爭在鋼(gang)鐵(tie)(tie)產(chan)業(ye)(ye)領域加(jia)大投(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi),以引起政(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)府對它(ta)們的(de)(de)重視和(he)支持;另一(yi)方(fang)(fang)(fang)面(mian),民(min)(min)(min)(min)(min)間(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)本(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)現有(you)投(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)渠道依(yi)然過(guo)(guo)窄,盡(jin)管(guan)石油、電信、鐵(tie)(tie)路(lu)、城市建設等壟斷領域向民(min)(min)(min)(min)(min)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)開(kai)(kai)放,但大部(bu)分都(dou)為(wei)投(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)大、見(jian)效慢、投(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)回收期(qi)(qi)長(chang)的(de)(de)產(chan)業(ye)(ye),使民(min)(min)(min)(min)(min)間(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)投(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)望而(er)生畏、望而(er)卻步(bu),相(xiang)比之下,鋼(gang)鐵(tie)(tie)產(chan)業(ye)(ye)投(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)金額(e)、投(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)規模(mo)和(he)回收時間(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)相(xiang)對好把(ba)(ba)(ba)握得多。正是這種(zhong)(zhong)短期(qi)(qi)逐(zhu)利心(xin)態(tai)促使民(min)(min)(min)(min)(min)間(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)本(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)不(bu)(bu)惜冒國(guo)家(jia)產(chan)業(ye)(ye)禁令(ling),以身去(qu)搏,企(qi)圖為(wei)民(min)(min)(min)(min)(min)間(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)本(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)打出(chu)一(yi)片(pian)投(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)新天(tian)地(di)。此外,民(min)(min)(min)(min)(min)間(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)本(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)投(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)鋼(gang)鐵(tie)(tie)產(chan)業(ye)(ye)的(de)(de)行(xing)(xing)為(wei),與(yu)政(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)府引導乏力存在很(hen)大關系,民(min)(min)(min)(min)(min)間(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)本(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)投(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)鋼(gang)鐵(tie)(tie)產(chan)業(ye)(ye)其(qi)實(shi)緊緊聯(lian)系著地(di)方(fang)(fang)(fang)政(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)府的(de)(de)利益,一(yi)些(xie)地(di)方(fang)(fang)(fang)政(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)府心(xin)中的(de)(de)GDP政(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)績觀(guan)依(yi)然濃厚,為(wei)了(le)(le)地(di)方(fang)(fang)(fang)政(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)府利益,沒有(you)把(ba)(ba)(ba)鋼(gang)鐵(tie)(tie)行(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)“限產(chan)減排”的(de)(de)政(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)策(ce)措施落到實(shi)處,甚至(zhi)對民(min)(min)(min)(min)(min)間(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)本(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)投(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)鋼(gang)鐵(tie)(tie)的(de)(de)行(xing)(xing)為(wei)不(bu)(bu)聞不(bu)(bu)問、聽之任之,致使民(min)(min)(min)(min)(min)間(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)本(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)這種(zhong)(zhong)逆(ni)經濟潮流而(er)投(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)過(guo)(guo)剩行(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)的(de)(de)行(xing)(xing)為(wei)無序蔓(man)延(yan)。
民(min)(min)間(jian)資(zi)本(ben)(ben)投資(zi)產(chan)(chan)(chan)能(neng)過(guo)剩(sheng)的(de)鋼鐵產(chan)(chan)(chan)業(ye),無異于“飲(yin)鴆止渴”,它于國(guo)(guo)于民(min)(min)都將是巨大損害,應引起各級(ji)政(zheng)(zheng)府(fu)和(he)民(min)(min)間(jian)資(zi)本(ben)(ben)擁(yong)有者(zhe)的(de)重視,并(bing)立即加以扭(niu)轉,把(ba)由此可能(neng)產(chan)(chan)(chan)生的(de)后果控制到(dao)最小幅度。首先,民(min)(min)間(jian)資(zi)本(ben)(ben)要(yao)改變“病急(ji)亂(luan)投醫(yi)”心態,保(bao)持理性投資(zi)觀念,尤其要(yao)把(ba)準國(guo)(guo)家宏觀產(chan)(chan)(chan)業(ye)政(zheng)(zheng)策,做到(dao)“有所為、有所不為”,以利自(zi)(zi)身可持續發(fa)展(zhan)。其次,各級(ji)政(zheng)(zheng)府(fu)要(yao)加大宣傳引導力度,向(xiang)民(min)(min)間(jian)資(zi)本(ben)(ben)擁(yong)有者(zhe)進行耐心細致(zhi)的(de)解(jie)釋,使(shi)民(min)(min)間(jian)資(zi)本(ben)(ben)擁(yong)有者(zhe)能(neng)自(zi)(zi)覺(jue)提高(gao)產(chan)(chan)(chan)業(ye)宏觀政(zheng)(zheng)策駕馭能(neng)力。同時(shi),各級(ji)政(zheng)(zheng)府(fu)要(yao)認真落(luo)實(shi)(shi)國(guo)(guo)家產(chan)(chan)(chan)業(ye)政(zheng)(zheng)策,對鋼鐵行業(ye)新(xin)增產(chan)(chan)(chan)能(neng)進行嚴(yan)格審批和(he)監督,確保(bao)國(guo)(guo)家壓縮產(chan)(chan)(chan)能(neng)政(zheng)(zheng)策落(luo)實(shi)(shi)到(dao)位(wei),推動中(zhong)國(guo)(guo)產(chan)(chan)(chan)業(ye)結構(gou)如期進行和(he)經濟健康可持續發(fa)展(zhan)。(作者(zhe)單位(wei):湖南省懷(huai)化市銀行監管分局)
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