每經編輯｜每經記者 陸慧婧    

每(mei)經記者 陸(lu)慧婧

停牌一個月之久的中(zhong)國(guo)南車即(ji)將更名為“中(zhong)國(guo)中(zhong)車”，并(bing)于6月8日(ri)復牌，多只重倉中(zhong)國(guo)南車的基金或(huo)將迎來(lai)套利良(liang)機(ji)。

第一大重倉基金減持

近期中(zhong)(zhong)國南(nan)車發布公(gong)告稱，中(zhong)(zhong)國南(nan)車與中(zhong)(zhong)國北(bei)車合并(bing)的換股實施工(gong)作已經(jing)完成，公(gong)司股票簡稱將由“中(zhong)(zhong)國南(nan)車”變更為“中(zhong)(zhong)國中(zhong)(zhong)車”，并(bing)于6月8日開(kai)市起(qi)復牌(pai)。

據此前公(gong)告，本次合(he)并(bing)(bing)涉及的(de)中(zhong)國南車(che)新(xin)增 A 股股份登記手續已于2015年6月(yue)8日完(wan)成，中(zhong)國南車(che)H股換股已于2015年5月(yue)26日完(wan)成。中(zhong)國南車(che)因本次合(he)并(bing)(bing)新(xin)增發(fa)行A股1113869萬股。

去年(nian)12月末，中(zhong)國南車與中(zhong)國北車正式宣布合(he)并，中(zhong)國南車股(gu)(gu)價連(lian)拉6個漲(zhang)停，此后隨(sui)著“一帶一路(lu)”概念股(gu)(gu)井噴，中(zhong)國南車作(zuo)為板(ban)塊(kuai)龍頭股(gu)(gu)，股(gu)(gu)價繼續走強，最高(gao)觸及39.47元，僅(jin)今(jin)年(nian)4月份單(dan)月漲(zhang)幅(fu)接近1倍。

基金一季報(bao)顯示，共有(you)17只基金前十大重倉股(gu)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)出(chu)現(xian)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國南(nan)(nan)車(che)(che)的(de)身影，長城品(pin)牌優選基金第(di)一、第(di)二大重倉股(gu)分別是中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國北(bei)車(che)(che)、中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國南(nan)(nan)車(che)(che)，合計持(chi)有(you)9627.36萬(wan)股(gu)，占(zhan)基金資產凈值(zhi)達15.33%。中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)銀(yin)動態策略基金也同(tong)時持(chi)有(you)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國南(nan)(nan)車(che)(che)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國北(bei)車(che)(che)，其(qi)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)，中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國南(nan)(nan)車(che)(che)持(chi)倉占(zhan)基金凈值(zhi)5.43%，中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國北(bei)車(che)(che)占(zhan)基金凈值(zhi)比為3.82%。除此之外，諾(nuo)安(an)上證新興(xing)產業ETF、銀(yin)華上證50等權ETF持(chi)有(you)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國南(nan)(nan)車(che)(che)占(zhan)基金凈值(zhi)比均超過4%。

不(bu)過(guo)，值得注(zhu)意的(de)(de)是(shi)，中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)南車(che)(che)換股合并之(zhi)后最新披露的(de)(de)前十(shi)大股東(dong)(dong)顯示(shi)，長(chang)城(cheng)品(pin)牌優選(xuan)基金在停牌之(zhi)前，對中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)南車(che)(che)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)北(bei)車(che)(che)有(you)所減持(chi)(chi)。在合并后的(de)(de)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)車(che)(che)前十(shi)大股東(dong)(dong)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)，長(chang)城(cheng)品(pin)牌優選(xuan)持(chi)(chi)有(you)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)車(che)(che)3457.64萬股，位(wei)列中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)車(che)(che)第十(shi)大股東(dong)(dong)，此(ci)外，上證50ETF持(chi)(chi)有(you)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)車(che)(che)5584.23萬股，擠入第七大股東(dong)(dong)之(zhi)位(wei)。

借道套利基金

若個(ge)股復(fu)牌之后封住(zhu)漲(zhang)停，借道重倉基金(jin)(jin)曲線買(mai)入不(bu)失為不(bu)錯的套利策略。不(bu)過，在進(jin)行基金(jin)(jin)套利之時，還有幾大(da)因(yin)素需(xu)要考慮(lv)。

首先，基(ji)金(jin)對(dui)(dui)停(ting)牌(pai)個股采(cai)取(qu)的估值模式，直接影響了套利收(shou)(shou)益。據諾(nuo)安(an)及銀(yin)華基(ji)金(jin)公(gong)告，公(gong)司對(dui)(dui)旗下(xia)部分基(ji)金(jin)持(chi)有的停(ting)牌(pai)股票中國(guo)北車、中國(guo)南車采(cai)用“指數收(shou)(shou)益法”進行估值。這也(ye)意味著(zhu)停(ting)牌(pai)期間(jian)，個股收(shou)(shou)益已經預估進基(ji)金(jin)凈值中，未來股票復牌(pai)，基(ji)金(jin)收(shou)(shou)益也(ye)會相對(dui)(dui)減少。

此外，基(ji)金(jin)申購贖回(hui)(hui)費(fei)用之(zhi)間(jian)的(de)差別也會(hui)影響到(dao)套(tao)利成果。相比銀行(xing)渠(qu)道，基(ji)金(jin)官方網(wang)站通常情況(kuang)下申購基(ji)金(jin)有4折優惠(hui)，場內購買LOF以(yi)及ETF基(ji)金(jin)，手續費(fei)僅為萬分之(zhi)三，而保(bao)本(ben)基(ji)金(jin)短期申購贖回(hui)(hui)則會(hui)收取懲罰(fa)性(xing)費(fei)率，申購贖回(hui)(hui)費(fei)相加高達3%。

最后，還要(yao)考慮大盤(pan)以及(ji)基金其他重(zhong)(zhong)倉股的走(zou)勢對(dui)套利的影(ying)響。例(li)如，4月(yue)中旬，東(dong)(dong)方(fang)財富(fu)復牌(pai)，彼時此正(zheng)值大盤(pan)走(zou)勢向好，創(chuang)(chuang)業(ye)板凸顯強(qiang)勢，東(dong)(dong)方(fang)財富(fu)存在強(qiang)烈補漲需求，復牌(pai)之后連拉(la)10個漲停，易方(fang)達(da)科訊基金以投資創(chuang)(chuang)業(ye)板見長(chang)，加之重(zhong)(zhong)倉東(dong)(dong)方(fang)財富(fu)，短短10個交(jiao)易日內，易方(fang)達(da)科訊大漲15%，收(shou)益(yi)頗(po)豐。