每經AI快訊，中國銀河03月06日發布研報，給予半導體行業推薦評級。

行業數據跟蹤：2024年12月(yue)，全球(qiu)半(ban)(ban)導體(ti)銷(xiao)售(shou)額(e)達(da) 569.7億(yi)(yi)美(mei)元(yuan)，同(tong)比增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)17.10%。2024年全球(qiu)半(ban)(ban)導體(ti)銷(xiao)售(shou)額(e)達(da) 6173億(yi)(yi)美(mei)元(yuan)，同(tong)比增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)19.1%，增(zeng)(zeng)量主要由邏輯(ji)電(dian)路(lu)和存儲器貢獻。2024年邏輯(ji)電(dian)路(lu)銷(xiao)售(shou)額(e)為(wei)2126億(yi)(yi)美(mei)元(yuan)，是集成電(dian)路(lu)中銷(xiao)售(shou)額(e)最高的產(chan)(chan)品。其次是存儲器，銷(xiao)售(shou)額(e)為(wei)1651億(yi)(yi)美(mei)元(yuan)，同(tong)比增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang) 78.9%，其中 DRAM 銷(xiao)售(shou)額(e)同(tong)比增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang) 82.6%。國內晶器代工企業持續擴充產(chan)(chan)能，產(chan)(chan)能利(li)用(yong)率處于高位。

板塊(kuai)跟蹤(zong)：2月半(ban)導(dao)(dao)體指(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)數(shu)表現(xian)：從(cong)漲(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)跌(die)(die)(die)(die)(die)幅(fu)(fu)(fu)(fu)來(lai)看(kan)，半(ban)導(dao)(dao)體行(xing)業指(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)數(shu)跑贏(ying)滬深300指(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)數(shu)10.37個(ge)百分(fen)點(dian)，跑贏(ying)電(dian)子指(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)數(shu) 3.51 個(ge)百分(fen)點(dian)。從(cong)具體數(shu)據來(lai)看(kan)，半(ban)導(dao)(dao)體行(xing)業指(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)數(shu)漲(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)跌(die)(die)(die)(die)(die)幅(fu)(fu)(fu)(fu)為(wei)(wei)(wei)12.28%，電(dian)子行(xing)業指(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)數(shu)漲(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)跌(die)(die)(die)(die)(die)幅(fu)(fu)(fu)(fu)為(wei)(wei)(wei)8.77%，滬深300指(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)數(shu)漲(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)跌(die)(die)(die)(die)(die)幅(fu)(fu)(fu)(fu)為(wei)(wei)(wei)1.91%。年初(chu)至(zhi)今半(ban)導(dao)(dao)體指(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)數(shu)表現(xian)：從(cong)漲(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)跌(die)(die)(die)(die)(die)幅(fu)(fu)(fu)(fu)水平來(lai)看(kan)，半(ban)導(dao)(dao)體行(xing)業指(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)數(shu)跑贏(ying)滬深 300指(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)數(shu) 24.35個(ge)百分(fen)點(dian)，跑贏(ying)電(dian)子指(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)數(shu)1.84 個(ge)百分(fen)點(dian)。從(cong)具體數(shu)據來(lai)看(kan)，半(ban)導(dao)(dao)體行(xing)業指(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)數(shu)漲(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)跌(die)(die)(die)(die)(die)幅(fu)(fu)(fu)(fu)為(wei)(wei)(wei) 10.03%，電(dian)子行(xing)業指(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)數(shu)漲(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)跌(die)(die)(die)(die)(die)幅(fu)(fu)(fu)(fu)為(wei)(wei)(wei)8.19%，滬深 300指(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)數(shu)漲(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)跌(die)(die)(die)(die)(die)幅(fu)(fu)(fu)(fu)為(wei)(wei)(wei) 11.17%。從(cong)細分(fen)板塊(kuai)指(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)數(shu)來(lai)看(kan)，2月集(ji)成電(dian)路漲(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)跌(die)(die)(die)(die)(die)幅(fu)(fu)(fu)(fu)為(wei)(wei)(wei) 12.81%，年初(chu)至(zhi)今漲(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)跌(die)(die)(die)(die)(die)幅(fu)(fu)(fu)(fu)為(wei)(wei)(wei) 11.07%；半(ban)導(dao)(dao)體設備近(jin)漲(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)跌(die)(die)(die)(die)(die)幅(fu)(fu)(fu)(fu)為(wei)(wei)(wei)13.32%，年初(chu)至(zhi)今漲(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)跌(die)(die)(die)(die)(die)幅(fu)(fu)(fu)(fu)為(wei)(wei)(wei)9.76%; 半(ban)導(dao)(dao)體材料漲(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)跌(die)(die)(die)(die)(die)幅(fu)(fu)(fu)(fu)為(wei)(wei)(wei)11.38%，年初(chu)至(zhi)今漲(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)跌(die)(die)(die)(die)(die)幅(fu)(fu)(fu)(fu)為(wei)(wei)(wei)10.59%。

投資建(jian)議(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)：截至 2024年(nian)四(si)季度末，主動型(xing)(xing)(xing)公募基金(jin)重倉持(chi)股(gu)(gu)對電(dian)(dian)子(zi)行(xing)(xing)業(ye)的配置占基金(jin)股(gu)(gu)票(piao)投資市(shi)值比例達到9.63%，已屬(shu)超配。年(nian)初至今，受 Deepseek 探索出(chu)大模(mo)型(xing)(xing)(xing)發(fa)展新路(lu)徑、中央(yang)召(zhao)開民(min)營企業(ye)家座談會以及(ji)國(guo)(guo)內頭部云廠(chang)商增(zeng)加(jia)資本開支等多重因素影響，電(dian)(dian)子(zi)行(xing)(xing)業(ye)指(zhi)數進一步上(shang)漲，截至2月底，電(dian)(dian)子(zi)指(zhi)數上(shang)漲 8.19%，動態 PE處于過去10年(nian)以來(lai)的94.71％分位點。Deepseek發(fa)布的開源模(mo)型(xing)(xing)(xing)引發(fa)市(shi)場關(guan)(guan)注(zhu)(zhu)，較低訓練(lian)成本有望助推(tui)(tui)AI大模(mo)型(xing)(xing)(xing)商業(ye)化(hua)；疊加(jia)今年(nian)推(tui)(tui)理需求預計會快速增(zeng)長(chang)，推(tui)(tui)薦海光(guang)信息，建(jian)議(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)關(guan)(guan)注(zhu)(zhu)寒武紀。DeepSeek 雖(sui)未打破(po)scaling laws模(mo)式，卻加(jia)速AI應用與(yu)硬件(jian)(jian)普及(ji)，看好 AI推(tui)(tui)動消費電(dian)(dian)子(zi)換機及(ji)相關(guan)(guan)終端硬件(jian)(jian)發(fa)展，推(tui)(tui)薦恒玄科技、瑞芯微(wei)、樂鑫科技、藍思科技、立(li)訊(xun)精密，建(jian)議(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)關(guan)(guan)注(zhu)(zhu)翱捷科技、敏芯股(gu)(gu)份、歌爾股(gu)(gu)份、水晶光(guang)電(dian)(dian)。比亞迪發(fa)布高階智駕系統"天(tian)神(shen)之(zhi)眼(yan)"，帶(dai)動車載 CIS 需求，推(tui)(tui)薦韋(wei)爾股(gu)(gu)份，建(jian)議(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)關(guan)(guan)注(zhu)(zhu)思特威。國(guo)(guo)內半導體(ti)產業(ye)鏈持(chi)續突破(po)卡脖子(zi)環節(jie)，下(xia)游晶圓代工廠(chang)擴建(jian)產能，建(jian)議(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)關(guan)(guan)注(zhu)(zhu)北方華(hua)創、拓荊科技。高端被動元件(jian)(jian)國(guo)(guo)產化(hua)進程加(jia)速，建(jian)議(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)關(guan)(guan)注(zhu)(zhu)三(san)環集團(tuan)、順絡電(dian)(dian)子(zi)。

風(feng)(feng)險(xian)提示：半導體行業復蘇(su)不及預期(qi)的(de)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)，國際貿易摩擦(ca)激化的(de)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)，技術迭代和產品(pin)認證不及預期(qi)的(de)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)，產能(neng)瓶頸的(de)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)。

每(mei)經頭條（nbdtoutiao）——

(記者 王曉波)

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