每經AI快訊，中(zhong)信證券研報指出，2024Q1由于OPEC+減(jian)產(chan)原(yuan)油(you)(you)200萬(wan)桶/天疊(die)加(jia)地緣(yuan)(yuan)事件持續擾(rao)(rao)動(dong)，布(bu)(bu)倫特(te)原(yuan)油(you)(you)期貨均價為(wei)82美(mei)(mei)元(yuan)(yuan)/桶，我們(men)認(ren)(ren)為(wei)2024全(quan)年(nian)仍(reng)需(xu)(xu)密切關(guan)注這兩(liang)大擾(rao)(rao)動(dong)。4月(yue)(yue)3日據財聯社報道，OPEC+ 組織確認(ren)(ren)繼續維(wei)持減(jian)產(chan)策略至6月(yue)(yue)底，美(mei)(mei)國產(chan)量未見(jian)顯(xian)著增(zeng)長，全(quan)球需(xu)(xu)求(qiu)維(wei)持平穩預期，供(gong)應端減(jian)產(chan)加(jia)劇全(quan)球原(yuan)油(you)(you)供(gong)需(xu)(xu)矛盾(dun)，布(bu)(bu)油(you)(you)中(zhong)樞進(jin)一步(bu)上移(yi)至85-90美(mei)(mei)元(yuan)(yuan)/桶。當前(qian)OECD商業油(you)(you)品庫(ku)存仍(reng)處(chu)于近十年(nian)低位，下(xia)半年(nian)OPEC+是否維(wei)持減(jian)產(chan)成(cheng)為(wei)關(guan)鍵擾(rao)(rao)動(dong)，同時隨著6月(yue)(yue)需(xu)(xu)求(qiu)旺(wang)季的到來(lai)，若(ruo)供(gong)需(xu)(xu)缺口顯(xian)著增(zeng)加(jia)將(jiang)(jiang)進(jin)一步(bu)推(tui)漲(zhang)油(you)(you)價。低庫(ku)存基礎下(xia)，頻繁(fan)擾(rao)(rao)動(dong)的地緣(yuan)(yuan)事件將(jiang)(jiang)主(zhu)導油(you)(you)價波(bo)(bo)動(dong)方向(xiang)，4月(yue)(yue)中(zhong)旬(xun)以來(lai)，中(zhong)東沖(chong)突升級進(jin)一步(bu)推(tui)漲(zhang)布(bu)(bu)油(you)(you)至92美(mei)(mei)元(yuan)(yuan)/桶，若(ruo)局(ju)部地緣(yuan)(yuan)沖(chong)擊加(jia)劇，油(you)(you)價有望波(bo)(bo)動(dong)上移(yi)。綜上，展望2024Q2及下(xia)半年(nian)，我們(men)認(ren)(ren)為(wei)減(jian)產(chan)規模有望持續、需(xu)(xu)求(qiu)旺(wang)季即將(jiang)(jiang)到來(lai)、局(ju)部地緣(yuan)(yuan)擾(rao)(rao)動(dong)仍(reng)將(jiang)(jiang)頻發(fa)，布(bu)(bu)油(you)(you)中(zhong)樞將(jiang)(jiang)在90美(mei)(mei)元(yuan)(yuan)/桶高(gao)位波(bo)(bo)動(dong)，密切關(guan)注地緣(yuan)(yuan)主(zhu)導油(you)(you)價波(bo)(bo)動(dong)方向(xiang)。