每經(jing)記者｜胥帥    每經(jing)編輯(ji)｜梁梟    

2024年(nian)(nian)全(quan)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)兩(liang)會開幕在即。全(quan)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)人大(da)代表、全(quan)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)工(gong)商聯副主席、通威集(ji)團董(dong)事局(ju)主席劉漢元(yuan)(yuan)已連續(xu)27年(nian)(nian)參加全(quan)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)兩(liang)會，積極為中(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)新能(neng)源產業發展“鼓(gu)與(yu)呼(hu)”。今(jin)年(nian)(nian)兩(liang)會，劉漢元(yuan)(yuan)將針(zhen)對構建以(yi)抽水(shui)蓄能(neng)、新型儲(chu)(chu)(chu)能(neng)為主，電動汽車等(deng)其他多種(zhong)儲(chu)(chu)(chu)能(neng)形式為輔的綜合性儲(chu)(chu)(chu)能(neng)系統，推進低碳中(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)進程(cheng)等(deng)方(fang)面提出相(xiang)關建議。

其中，劉漢元(yuan)重點提(ti)及了光(guang)(guang)儲(chu)度電(dian)成本。他認(ren)為(wei)，光(guang)(guang)儲(chu)合計度電(dian)成本東部有望降(jiang)至0.3元(yuan)/kWh至0.4元(yuan)/kWh，西(xi)部降(jiang)至0.3元(yuan)/kWh以內，完全具備經濟性，真正(zheng)實現光(guang)(guang)儲(chu)一體平價上(shang)網(wang)。

“缺乏合理回報機制是發展抽水蓄能制約因素”

去年全(quan)國(guo)兩會，全(quan)國(guo)人大(da)代表、全(quan)國(guo)工商(shang)聯副主席(xi)、通威集(ji)團董事局主席(xi)劉漢元(yuan)針(zhen)對優(you)先(xian)保障硅能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)產業用(yong)電需求，支(zhi)撐“雙碳”目標(biao)落(luo)地提出了相關建議(yi)。他認為(wei)，硅能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)產業的穩健(jian)快速發展，對鞏固我國(guo)在可再生(sheng)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)領域的全(quan)球領先(xian)地位(wei)，助力(li)“雙碳”目標(biao)早日實現，推動全(quan)球能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)轉型(xing)都具有重(zhong)大(da)的現實和歷史意義。

今(jin)年兩會，劉漢元將針對構建以抽水(shui)蓄能(neng)、新型儲能(neng)為主，電動汽(qi)車等其他多(duo)種儲能(neng)形式為輔的綜合(he)性儲能(neng)系統，推進低碳中國進程等方面提出相關建議。

《每日(ri)(ri)(ri)經濟新聞(wen)》記者于今(jin)日(ri)(ri)(ri)（3月3日(ri)(ri)(ri)）獲取了劉漢元的(de)建議內(nei)容。他表示，在各(ge)類儲能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)方式中，抽水蓄(xu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)具有調(diao)峰填(tian)谷、調(diao)頻、調(diao)相、儲能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)、事故(gu)備用(yong)、黑(hei)啟動等(deng)多種(zhong)功能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)，是(shi)目前(qian)最(zui)成(cheng)(cheng)熟、度電(dian)成(cheng)(cheng)本最(zui)低(di)的(de)儲能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)技術，兼具使用(yong)壽命(ming)長(chang)、轉換效率高、裝機容量(liang)大、持續放電(dian)時(shi)(shi)間長(chang)等(deng)特點，能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)量(liang)轉換效率在75%左右。隨著我國能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源結構(gou)中可再生(sheng)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源占比不斷提升，未(wei)來大部分抽水蓄(xu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)電(dian)站(zhan)都(dou)會(hui)參(can)與日(ri)(ri)(ri)內(nei)調(diao)節，按每天(tian)充(chong)放電(dian)一次計(ji)算，抽水蓄(xu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)電(dian)站(zhan)的(de)利用(yong)時(shi)(shi)數將大大提升，儲能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)度電(dian)成(cheng)(cheng)本將大幅降(jiang)低(di)。

劉(liu)漢元 圖(tu)片來源：企業供(gong)圖(tu)

劉漢元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)對投(tou)資成本(ben)做過一個測(ce)算：普通水電(dian)(dian)站(zhan)為9000元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/kW左(zuo)右，大型抽(chou)水蓄(xu)能(neng)電(dian)(dian)站(zhan)在(zai)6000元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/kW左(zuo)右，中小型抽(chou)水蓄(xu)能(neng)電(dian)(dian)站(zhan)（裝機(ji)容(rong)量(liang)小于50MW）因技術難度較低，投(tou)資成本(ben)在(zai)5000元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/kW以內(nei)。通過優(you)化設計(ji)，采用(yong)小水庫容(rong)量(liang)方案，投(tou)資成本(ben)還可(ke)大幅降(jiang)低至(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)2000元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/kW左(zuo)右。目前，抽(chou)水蓄(xu)能(neng)度電(dian)(dian)成本(ben)在(zai)0.21元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/kWh至(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)0.25元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/kWh，低于其他儲(chu)(chu)能(neng)技術。如采用(yong)小水庫方案，同(tong)時合理增(zeng)加每日充(chong)放電(dian)(dian)次數，在(zai)現有技術條件下(xia)，抽(chou)水蓄(xu)能(neng)度電(dian)(dian)成本(ben)可(ke)降(jiang)低到0.1元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/kWh左(zuo)右。當前，光(guang)伏發電(dian)(dian)在(zai)東(dong)部地區已降(jiang)至(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)0.2元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/kWh至(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)0.3元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/kWh，西部地區降(jiang)到0.2元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/kWh以內(nei)，二(er)者疊加，光(guang)儲(chu)(chu)合計(ji)度電(dian)(dian)成本(ben)東(dong)部有望降(jiang)至(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)0.3至(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)0.4元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/kWh，西部降(jiang)至(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)0.3元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/kWh以內(nei)，甚至(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)更低，完(wan)全(quan)具備(bei)經濟性(xing)，真正實現光(guang)儲(chu)(chu)一體平價上(shang)網。

數據顯示，截至(zhi)2023年(nian)底，中國已(yi)投(tou)運儲能(neng)項目累計(ji)裝(zhuang)機(ji)達86.5GW，其(qi)中抽水蓄能(neng)累計(ji)裝(zhuang)機(ji)51.3GW，占比從(cong)2022年(nian)77.1%降至(zhi)59.4%；新(xin)型儲能(neng)累計(ji)裝(zhuang)機(ji)34.5GW，占比提(ti)升至(zhi)39.9%。

劉漢元表示，近(jin)十多(duo)年(nian)來(lai)，我(wo)國(guo)抽(chou)水蓄(xu)(xu)能(neng)發展(zhan)速度(du)整體較(jiao)慢，建設速度(du)始終(zhong)不及(ji)預期，“十二五(wu)(wu)”“十三五(wu)(wu)”新增裝機均未達(da)(da)到(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)規(gui)(gui)劃(hua)目標(biao)。根據《抽(chou)水蓄(xu)(xu)能(neng)中長期發展(zhan)規(gui)(gui)劃(hua)（2021—2035年(nian)）》，到(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)2025年(nian)，我(wo)國(guo)抽(chou)水蓄(xu)(xu)能(neng)投(tou)產(chan)總規(gui)(gui)模(mo)將達(da)(da)到(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)62GW以(yi)上(shang)，到(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)2030年(nian)達(da)(da)到(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)120GW左右。但要(yao)匹配可再生(sheng)能(neng)源發展(zhan)速度(du)，該(gai)規(gui)(gui)劃(hua)目標(biao)還(huan)遠遠不夠。根據相關機構預測(ce)，我(wo)國(guo)要(yao)實(shi)現碳中和目標(biao)，按(an)最保守估算，到(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)2025年(nian)抽(chou)水蓄(xu)(xu)能(neng)電站裝機規(gui)(gui)模(mo)需(xu)達(da)(da)到(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)130GW，2030年(nian)達(da)(da)到(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)250GW。

“制約(yue)(yue)我(wo)國抽(chou)水蓄(xu)能發(fa)展的(de)(de)(de)最核心(xin)問題是電(dian)(dian)價制度不夠完善，缺(que)乏合理的(de)(de)(de)回報機制。隨著兩部(bu)制電(dian)(dian)價落地，阻礙抽(chou)水蓄(xu)能發(fa)展的(de)(de)(de)核心(xin)問題有(you)(you)望(wang)得到解決，產業預計將(jiang)迎來爆(bao)發(fa)式增(zeng)長(chang)。”劉(liu)漢元說，制約(yue)(yue)抽(chou)水蓄(xu)能發(fa)展的(de)(de)(de)因素還(huan)包括(kuo)建設周期長(chang)，生態環境及(ji)地質條件要求嚴(yan)格，審批困(kun)難等。通過對梯級水電(dian)(dian)及(ji)不同規(gui)模(mo)的(de)(de)(de)常(chang)規(gui)水電(dian)(dian)進行改(gai)造，可(ke)形成混合抽(chou)水蓄(xu)能電(dian)(dian)站，不僅改(gai)造周期短、投(tou)資(zi)小，還(huan)能提高現(xian)有(you)(you)電(dian)(dian)網利用(yong)率，是未來抽(chou)水蓄(xu)能發(fa)展的(de)(de)(de)重要方向(xiang)之一(yi)。

“電動汽車保有量是解決電網儲能關鍵”

抽水(shui)蓄能(neng)(neng)之外(wai)，劉漢元(yuan)還提(ti)到鋰(li)電(dian)池(chi)儲(chu)能(neng)(neng)。近(jin)年(nian)來(lai)，隨(sui)著電(dian)池(chi)價格不斷(duan)降低，以鋰(li)電(dian)為(wei)主的(de)新(xin)型(xing)(xing)儲(chu)能(neng)(neng)獲得(de)快速發(fa)展，新(xin)增裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機規(gui)模(mo)大幅提(ti)升，提(ti)前兩年(nian)完成了“十四(si)五(wu)”規(gui)劃的(de)新(xin)型(xing)(xing)儲(chu)能(neng)(neng)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機目標。截(jie)至2023年(nian)底，全國已(yi)有(you)超(chao)過25個省（區、市）出臺了“十四(si)五(wu)”新(xin)型(xing)(xing)儲(chu)能(neng)(neng)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機規(gui)劃，裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機目標超(chao)過70GW。

劉(liu)漢元認為(wei)，目前，鋰電(dian)(dian)(dian)池儲(chu)(chu)(chu)能(neng)的系(xi)統(tong)建設成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)已降到(dao)1000元/kWh以內，且電(dian)(dian)(dian)池價格還(huan)在持續降低(di)，未(wei)來(lai)不久系(xi)統(tong)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)大概率會降低(di)到(dao)500元/kWh左右，充(chong)(chong)放(fang)電(dian)(dian)(dian)循環壽命可達8000至10000次，按年充(chong)(chong)放(fang)電(dian)(dian)(dian)次數500次計算，鋰電(dian)(dian)(dian)儲(chu)(chu)(chu)能(neng)的度電(dian)(dian)(dian)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)可以降到(dao)0.1元/kWh左右，同樣具(ju)備(bei)(bei)了大規模應(ying)用(yong)(yong)的經濟性(xing)。同時(shi)(shi)，隨(sui)著電(dian)(dian)(dian)動(dong)汽(qi)車的爆(bao)發式(shi)(shi)增長，車載動(dong)力(li)電(dian)(dian)(dian)池也(ye)具(ju)備(bei)(bei)了成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)為(wei)儲(chu)(chu)(chu)能(neng)終端的巨大潛力(li)。如能(neng)有(you)效利用(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)動(dong)汽(qi)車大量閑置時(shi)(shi)間和冗余充(chong)(chong)放(fang)電(dian)(dian)(dian)次數，作為(wei)分布式(shi)(shi)儲(chu)(chu)(chu)能(neng)單元接入系(xi)統(tong)，除行駛時(shi)(shi)間以外，大部分時(shi)(shi)間在線，成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)為(wei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)儲(chu)(chu)(chu)能(neng)、微網(wang)儲(chu)(chu)(chu)能(neng)、小區(qu)儲(chu)(chu)(chu)能(neng)、家用(yong)(yong)儲(chu)(chu)(chu)能(neng)的一部分，用(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)高峰(feng)時(shi)(shi)向(xiang)(xiang)電(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)反向(xiang)(xiang)售電(dian)(dian)(dian)，用(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)低(di)谷(gu)時(shi)(shi)存儲(chu)(chu)(chu)過(guo)剩電(dian)(dian)(dian)量，不但為(wei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)穩定作出貢獻，還(huan)能(neng)以市場(chang)化方式(shi)(shi)通過(guo)充(chong)(chong)放(fang)電(dian)(dian)(dian)價差獲得相應(ying)收益(yi)，分攤(tan)購買(mai)整車或(huo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)池包的成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)，實現電(dian)(dian)(dian)動(dong)汽(qi)車和電(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)的良性(xing)互動(dong)。

據(ju)劉漢元(yuan)測算，一臺價值(zhi)30萬元(yuan)、電(dian)池容量(liang)100kWh的(de)電(dian)車，按每天(tian)充放電(dian)兩次套利計算，大(da)約七到(dao)八年(nian)時間即(ji)可收回全部購車成本。據(ju)相關機構預測，到(dao)2050年(nian)我國汽車保有量(liang)將達到(dao)5億(yi)輛—10億(yi)輛，其中電(dian)動汽車占比超(chao)過90%。屆時，僅依靠電(dian)動汽車即(ji)可滿足我國電(dian)網2天(tian)—4天(tian)的(de)儲能(neng)需(xu)要。

結合(he)抽(chou)水蓄能(neng)(neng)(neng)、新型(xing)(xing)儲(chu)(chu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)各自特點，二者優勢互補，構建(jian)以(yi)抽(chou)水蓄能(neng)(neng)(neng)、新型(xing)(xing)儲(chu)(chu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)為主，電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)動(dong)(dong)(dong)汽(qi)車(che)等(deng)其他多種儲(chu)(chu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)形式為輔(fu)的(de)綜(zong)合(he)性(xing)儲(chu)(chu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)系統(tong)，為大(da)規(gui)模、高比(bi)例可再(zai)生能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)接入形成有力支撐，助力新型(xing)(xing)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力系統(tong)打(da)造，推進(jin)低(di)碳中(zhong)(zhong)國進(jin)程，劉(liu)漢元對(dui)此建(jian)議(yi)：一是(shi)進(jin)一步加大(da)政策驅動(dong)(dong)(dong)力度(du)，補齊(qi)歷(li)史“欠賬”，跟上可再(zai)生能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)發(fa)展速度(du)，集中(zhong)(zhong)精力在“十四(si)五(wu)”“十五(wu)五(wu)”期間，大(da)規(gui)模開(kai)工建(jian)設抽(chou)水蓄能(neng)(neng)(neng)項目，尤其是(shi)距離負荷中(zhong)(zhong)心近(jin)、建(jian)設周期短(duan)的(de)中(zhong)(zhong)小(xiao)型(xing)(xing)離河抽(chou)水蓄能(neng)(neng)(neng)項目。二是(shi)進(jin)一步加大(da)力度(du)推動(dong)(dong)(dong)新型(xing)(xing)儲(chu)(chu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)發(fa)展，支持新型(xing)(xing)儲(chu)(chu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)參與(yu)(yu)調(diao)峰調(diao)頻的(de)投資(zi)和(he)建(jian)設，引導和(he)鼓(gu)勵市場(chang)主體參與(yu)(yu)儲(chu)(chu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)業務，用市場(chang)化(hua)(hua)機制解決儲(chu)(chu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)面臨的(de)問題。鼓(gu)勵并推動(dong)(dong)(dong)部分(fen)局域網(wang)、微(wei)網(wang)、自備電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)率先實現發(fa)儲(chu)(chu)用一體化(hua)(hua)方(fang)案解決。三是(shi)建(jian)議(yi)加快(kuai)研究制定電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)動(dong)(dong)(dong)汽(qi)車(che)參與(yu)(yu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)儲(chu)(chu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)的(de)相(xiang)關配套(tao)政策措(cuo)施。加快(kuai)車(che)網(wang)互動(dong)(dong)(dong)技術研發(fa)，不斷提高電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)動(dong)(dong)(dong)汽(qi)車(che)與(yu)(yu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)協調(diao)運行的(de)可靠性(xing)、經濟性(xing)，引導車(che)主參與(yu)(yu)智能(neng)(neng)(neng)化(hua)(hua)有序充放電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)，推動(dong)(dong)(dong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)動(dong)(dong)(dong)汽(qi)車(che)以(yi)市場(chang)化(hua)(hua)方(fang)式參與(yu)(yu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)儲(chu)(chu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)服務。