每經AI快訊，2024年1月(yue)11日，華西證券(quan)發布(bu)研報點評(ping)中材(cai)國際（600970）。

事(shi)件概述(shu)：公(gong)司發布經營(ying)數(shu)據(ju)公(gong)告：2023年公(gong)司全(quan)(quan)年新(xin)簽合(he)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)額616億(yi)(yi)元，同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)+18%；其中(zhong)工程(cheng)技術服(fu)務(wu)/高(gao)端(duan)裝(zhuang)備制造/生產(chan)(chan)運(yun)營(ying)服(fu)務(wu)分別(bie)(bie)為(wei)390.67/74.20/135.86億(yi)(yi)元，同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)+21%/14%/14%；境(jing)(jing)(jing)內/境(jing)(jing)(jing)外(wai)分別(bie)(bie)為(wei)283.37/333.07億(yi)(yi)元，同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)-8%/55%；全(quan)(quan)年看公(gong)司工程(cheng)技術服(fu)務(wu)逆(ni)勢(shi)增長；境(jing)(jing)(jing)外(wai)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)高(gao)增，公(gong)司出海拓展表現優異，境(jing)(jing)(jing)內業務(wu)短期承壓。單Q4看，新(xin)簽合(he)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)額94.11億(yi)(yi)元，同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)51%。其中(zhong)，工程(cheng)技術服(fu)務(wu)/高(gao)端(duan)裝(zhuang)備制造/生產(chan)(chan)運(yun)營(ying)服(fu)務(wu)分別(bie)(bie)為(wei)33.38/20.80/39.39億(yi)(yi)元，同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)76%/15%/52%；境(jing)(jing)(jing)內/境(jing)(jing)(jing)外(wai)分別(bie)(bie)為(wei)45.18/48.93億(yi)(yi)元，同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)-45%/-55%；23Q4整體看新(xin)簽同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)有(you)一定壓力。截止2023年底，公(gong)司在手訂單為(wei)593.25億(yi)(yi)元，同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)-5.48%，為(wei)2022年收入的1.5倍，在行業下行背景下實屬難得；在手訂單覆蓋率(lv)高(gao)，為(wei)穩(wen)健、高(gao)質量發展注入強心劑。

工(gong)程(cheng)技(ji)術(shu)短期承(cheng)壓(ya)(ya)，運維(wei)(wei)(wei)訂單(dan)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長表現可觀(guan)。工(gong)程(cheng)技(ji)術(shu)服務全年(nian)(nian)/Q4的(de)同比增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)為(wei)+21%/-76%，單(dan)Q4工(gong)程(cheng)技(ji)術(shu)服務新簽承(cheng)壓(ya)(ya)，我們認(ren)(ren)為(wei)一是因(yin)去年(nian)(nian)同期基數較高(gao)，另外疊加地產端(duan)需求承(cheng)壓(ya)(ya)造成；高(gao)端(duan)裝備制(zhi)造全年(nian)(nian)/Q4同比增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)為(wei)+14%/+15%，訂單(dan)保持(chi)穩(wen)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)，公(gong)(gong)司(si)完(wan)成合肥院收購，我們預(yu)計后續將會(hui)有更大的(de)突破；生產運營服務全年(nian)(nian)/Q4同比增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)為(wei)+14%/+52%，其(qi)中礦(kuang)山運維(wei)(wei)(wei)和水泥(ni)(ni)運維(wei)(wei)(wei)全年(nian)(nian)/Q4增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)分別為(wei)+7%/+45%、+61%/+41%，水泥(ni)(ni)運維(wei)(wei)(wei)訂單(dan)超(chao)市場預(yu)期，我們認(ren)(ren)為(wei)公(gong)(gong)司(si)在運維(wei)(wei)(wei)方面新簽亮眼一是公(gong)(gong)司(si)在水泥(ni)(ni)產業鏈延伸或獲得(de)客(ke)戶認(ren)(ren)可，前端(duan)的(de)水泥(ni)(ni)工(gong)程(cheng)項目(mu)有效轉化為(wei)運維(wei)(wei)(wei)的(de)訂單(dan)；二是出(chu)海拓展或取得(de)順利進展；運維(wei)(wei)(wei)訂單(dan)的(de)高(gao)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)加速(su)確定公(gong)(gong)司(si)業務的(de)三足鼎立之勢。

加碼國(guo)內(nei)外(wai)(wai)水(shui)泥(ni)產(chan)業(ye)(ye)鏈，并(bing)購(gou)(gou)優質同(tong)(tong)業(ye)(ye)資(zi)產(chan)做(zuo)大(da)做(zuo)強(qiang)(qiang)(qiang)，擬(ni)增資(zi)中材(cai)(cai)水(shui)泥(ni)海外(wai)(wai)業(ye)(ye)務(wu)強(qiang)(qiang)(qiang)強(qiang)(qiang)(qiang)聯(lian)動。根據公(gong)司年(nian)(nian)報，公(gong)司在水(shui)泥(ni)技術(shu)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)備與(yu)工程(cheng)(cheng)主業(ye)(ye)全球市(shi)場(chang)占有率(lv)連續15年(nian)(nian)保持世界第一。我(wo)們測算國(guo)內(nei)水(shui)泥(ni)工程(cheng)(cheng)市(shi)場(chang)規模超270億元(yuan)（其中技改規模超130億元(yuan)），國(guo)外(wai)(wai)受益(yi)于(yu)“一帶一路”基(ji)建需求(qiu)新增+老線技改市(shi)場(chang)空間較大(da)。公(gong)司多業(ye)(ye)務(wu)板塊在中建材(cai)(cai)的支持下得到跨(kua)越式(shi)發展，2021-23年(nian)(nian)密集收(shou)購(gou)(gou)集團(tuan)同(tong)(tong)業(ye)(ye)資(zi)產(chan)：①2021年(nian)(nian)收(shou)購(gou)(gou)北京凱(kai)盛、南京凱(kai)盛強(qiang)(qiang)(qiang)化水(shui)泥(ni)工程(cheng)(cheng)技術(shu)業(ye)(ye)務(wu)縱深；②2022年(nian)(nian)收(shou)購(gou)(gou)智慧工業(ye)(ye)、安睿(rui)智達完善運維(wei)服務(wu)；③2023年(nian)(nian)順(shun)利收(shou)購(gou)(gou)合(he)肥院，裝(zhuang)(zhuang)備制造能力再上新臺階(jie)；④2023年(nian)(nian)12月公(gong)司擬(ni)與(yu)天山水(shui)泥(ni)按照4：6的比(bi)例共同(tong)(tong)增資(zi)中材(cai)(cai)水(shui)泥(ni)，強(qiang)(qiang)(qiang)強(qiang)(qiang)(qiang)聯(lian)合(he)下我(wo)們預計可(ke)顯著拉動公(gong)司境(jing)外(wai)(wai)對應(ying)的水(shui)泥(ni)工程(cheng)(cheng)、裝(zhuang)(zhuang)備、運維(wei)三大(da)業(ye)(ye)務(wu)需求(qiu)，未來(lai)境(jing)外(wai)(wai)業(ye)(ye)績的成長(chang)確定性高。

預(yu)計(ji)股(gu)(gu)息(xi)(xi)率(lv)(lv)(lv)高達5%，股(gu)(gu)權激勵業績(ji)確定性(xing)高。2023年(nian)12月公(gong)司(si)發布分紅計(ji)劃即2024-26年(nian)承諾股(gu)(gu)利支付率(lv)(lv)(lv)將不低(di)于40%；2020-22年(nian)公(gong)司(si)分紅比(bi)率(lv)(lv)(lv)分別為(wei)35.3%/28.8%/36.1%。我們測算按照(zhao)2024年(nian)預(yu)計(ji)歸母(mu)凈利潤33.03億(yi)元、股(gu)(gu)息(xi)(xi)支付率(lv)(lv)(lv)取最低(di)比(bi)例40%、總股(gu)(gu)本(ben)取2022年(nian)股(gu)(gu)本(ben)26.42億(yi)股(gu)(gu)為(wei)基數計(ji)算，2024年(nian)股(gu)(gu)息(xi)(xi)率(lv)(lv)(lv)超5%，股(gu)(gu)息(xi)(xi)率(lv)(lv)(lv)較2022年(nian)提升超150pct。公(gong)司(si)2021年(nian)發布股(gu)(gu)權激勵方(fang)案，22-24年(nian)考核目標(biao)為(wei)以2020年(nian)為(wei)基數歸母(mu)凈利潤年(nian)復合增長率(lv)(lv)(lv)不低(di)于15.5%，加權ROE分別不低(di)于14.9%/15.4%/16.2%，未來經(jing)營業績(ji)的確定性(xing)高。

投資建議

我們維(wei)持盈(ying)利(li)預(yu)測，預(yu)計2023-25年，公(gong)司(si)實(shi)現收(shou)入439.70/511.44/585.42億(yi)元，同(tong)比增速(su)13.3%/16.3%/14.5%，預(yu)計歸母凈利(li)潤26.59/33.03/38.35億(yi)元，同(tong)比增速(su)21.2%/24.2%/16.1%，預(yu)計EPS 1.01/1.25/1.45元，對應1月10日(ri)9.94元收(shou)盤價(jia)9.88/7.95/6.85x PE。維(wei)持“買(mai)入”評級。

風險提示

海外市場推(tui)動不(bu)及(ji)預(yu)期(qi)(qi)；中(zhong)材水泥增資不(bu)及(ji)預(yu)期(qi)(qi)；政(zheng)策推(tui)動不(bu)及(ji)預(yu)期(qi)(qi)；成(cheng)本高于預(yu)期(qi)(qi)；系統性風險等(deng)。

(來源：慧博投研)

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(編輯 曾健輝)