每經AI快訊，2024年1月(yue)10日，中信證券發布研報(bao)點評川(chuan)投能源（600674）。

公(gong)司(si)2023年(nian)歸母(mu)凈(jing)利(li)(li)潤(run)同比(bi)增(zeng)長(chang)25.3%至44.03億元(yuan)，主(zhu)要受益(yi)于核心參(can)股(gu)(gu)資(zi)產(chan)雅礱(long)江公(gong)司(si)業(ye)績(ji)增(zeng)長(chang)以(yi)及國能大渡河公(gong)司(si)股(gu)(gu)權比(bi)例增(zeng)至20%；2023年(nian)雅礱(long)江流(liu)域(yu)來(lai)水(shui)偏枯，雅中新機(ji)組尚未完全(quan)發揮效力，我們(men)預計后(hou)續流(liu)域(yu)來(lai)水(shui)恢復正(zheng)常后(hou)雅中機(ji)組仍能釋放電量及業(ye)績(ji)彈性；公(gong)司(si)正(zheng)加(jia)大對外投資(zi)力度，參(can)控(kong)股(gu)(gu)并舉加(jia)速風光&抽(chou)蓄領域(yu)布局，拓寬(kuan)未來(lai)業(ye)績(ji)成長(chang)空間。我們(men)預測公(gong)司(si)2024~2025年(nian)歸母(mu)凈(jing)利(li)(li)潤(run)分別為54.7億/57.5億元(yuan)，給(gei)予公(gong)司(si)2024年(nian)目標價17.20元(yuan)，維(wei)持“買入”評級。

▍2023年(nian)歸母(mu)(mu)凈(jing)利(li)潤(run)44.03億(yi)元(yuan)，業(ye)績符合(he)我們預(yu)期(qi)。公司(si)(si)發布2023年(nian)業(ye)績快報(bao)，全年(nian)實現營(ying)業(ye)收(shou)入(ru)14.86億(yi)元(yuan)，同(tong)比(bi)增(zeng)長(chang)4.6%；歸母(mu)(mu)凈(jing)利(li)潤(run)44.03億(yi)元(yuan)，同(tong)比(bi)增(zeng)長(chang)25.3%；折(zhe)算(suan)EPS為(wei)0.987元(yuan)，同(tong)比(bi)增(zeng)長(chang)24.1%，業(ye)績符合(he)我們預(yu)期(qi)。分季度來看，2023Q4公司(si)(si)實現營(ying)業(ye)收(shou)入(ru)4.66億(yi)元(yuan)，同(tong)比(bi)減少13.3%；歸母(mu)(mu)凈(jing)利(li)潤(run)5.62億(yi)元(yuan)，同(tong)比(bi)減少5.8%；折(zhe)算(suan)EPS為(wei)0.13元(yuan)，同(tong)比(bi)減少約5.5%。

▍核心參股(gu)(gu)水電(dian)業績持(chi)(chi)續釋放，推(tui)動(dong)公(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)全年(nian)業績高(gao)增。受(shou)益于公(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)核心參股(gu)(gu)資產雅(ya)(ya)礱(long)江公(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)（持(chi)(chi)股(gu)(gu)比(bi)例48%）在雅(ya)(ya)中(zhong)(zhong)新電(dian)站(zhan)發電(dian)能力釋放、錦-官電(dian)源(yuan)組外送江蘇電(dian)價上(shang)漲(zhang)翹尾效(xiao)應等(deng)因素推(tui)動(dong)下貢獻的(de)(de)投(tou)(tou)資收益增長(chang)(chang)，以及公(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)增持(chi)(chi)國能大渡河公(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)10%股(gu)(gu)權(quan)帶來(lai)的(de)(de)投(tou)(tou)資收益增長(chang)(chang)，2023年(nian)公(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)歸母(mu)凈利(li)潤(run)同比(bi)高(gao)增25.3%。考慮到2023年(nian)雅(ya)(ya)礱(long)江流域來(lai)水較多年(nian)平均(jun)偏枯(ku)，2022Q1全面投(tou)(tou)產的(de)(de)雅(ya)(ya)中(zhong)(zhong)電(dian)站(zhan)尚未完(wan)全發揮效(xiao)力，我們預計伴(ban)隨著流域來(lai)水恢復(fu)正常，雅(ya)(ya)中(zhong)(zhong)電(dian)站(zhan)的(de)(de)發電(dian)能力與增發效(xiao)應將持(chi)(chi)續帶來(lai)電(dian)量彈性，推(tui)動(dong)公(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)投(tou)(tou)資收益進一步增長(chang)(chang)。

▍控(kong)股(gu)資產表現亮眼，電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)及營(ying)收穩步增(zeng)(zeng)長。2023年(nian)公(gong)(gong)司(si)控(kong)股(gu)水(shui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)/光(guang)伏(fu)發(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)同比分別增(zeng)(zeng)長6.4%/172.9%至50.0/2.3億千瓦(wa)時，其(qi)中水(shui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)發(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)增(zeng)(zeng)長主(zhu)要(yao)受(shou)益(yi)于(yu)仁宗海大壩整治影響解除(chu)后(hou)田灣河梯級(ji)電(dian)(dian)(dian)站發(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)能力恢復，光(guang)伏(fu)發(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)增(zeng)(zeng)長主(zhu)要(yao)受(shou)益(yi)于(yu)2022Q3公(gong)(gong)司(si)并購(gou)桂平(ping)光(guang)伏(fu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)站翹尾效應。控(kong)股(gu)發(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)增(zeng)(zeng)長推(tui)動公(gong)(gong)司(si)2023年(nian)營(ying)收同比增(zeng)(zeng)長4.6%，為公(gong)(gong)司(si)貢獻一(yi)定業績增(zeng)(zeng)量(liang)。

▍加速布(bu)局(ju)風(feng)光(guang)&抽(chou)蓄(xu)領(ling)(ling)域，打開業(ye)績(ji)(ji)成(cheng)長空間。近年(nian)來，公(gong)(gong)司參控股(gu)并(bing)舉(ju)加速清潔能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)領(ling)(ling)域布(bu)局(ju)。風(feng)光(guang)方(fang)面，公(gong)(gong)司積(ji)極(ji)尋(xun)找(zhao)優質項目(mu)(mu)自建與并(bing)購機(ji)會，同(tong)時依托雅礱江公(gong)(gong)司發展水(shui)風(feng)光(guang)一體(ti)化基地，此外還通(tong)過(guo)參股(gu)三峽能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)、中廣核風(feng)電、中核匯能(neng)(neng)(neng)等(deng)龍(long)頭運營(ying)商享(xiang)受綠電行業(ye)發展紅利；抽(chou)蓄(xu)方(fang)面，公(gong)(gong)司積(ji)極(ji)尋(xun)找(zhao)抽(chou)水(shui)蓄(xu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)項目(mu)(mu)資源(yuan)，2023年(nian)通(tong)過(guo)競配方(fang)式獲取了宜賓屏山抽(chou)水(shui)蓄(xu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)電站項目(mu)(mu)資源(yuan)，目(mu)(mu)前正(zheng)積(ji)極(ji)推進項目(mu)(mu)核準工作(zuo)，投產后有(you)望增厚公(gong)(gong)司裝機(ji)與營(ying)收業(ye)績(ji)(ji)規模。風(feng)光(guang)&抽(chou)蓄(xu)領(ling)(ling)域布(bu)局(ju)有(you)望為公(gong)(gong)司未(wei)來業(ye)績(ji)(ji)現金(jin)流持續(xu)成(cheng)長奠定基礎。

▍風險因素：公司來(lai)水、發電(dian)(dian)量(liang)低于預期(qi)；雅中新電(dian)(dian)站定價偏低；市場交易電(dian)(dian)價不及預期(qi)；宏觀經濟疲弱(ruo)至電(dian)(dian)量(liang)消(xiao)納困難。

▍盈利預(yu)測、估值與評級：我(wo)們(men)維持(chi)公(gong)司(si)2024~2025年(nian)歸(gui)母凈利潤預(yu)測分別為(wei)(wei)54.7/57.5億元，對應(ying)2024~2025年(nian)EPS預(yu)測分別為(wei)(wei)1.20/1.26元，公(gong)司(si)當前股(gu)(gu)價對應(ying)2024~2025年(nian)PE分別為(wei)(wei)12.4/11.8倍(bei)，PB分別為(wei)(wei)1.7/1.6倍(bei)。考慮到核心參股(gu)(gu)資產(chan)業(ye)績有望于2024年(nian)釋(shi)放，我(wo)們(men)根(gen)據公(gong)司(si)過去五年(nian)14倍(bei)歷史PE均值，給予公(gong)司(si)2024年(nian)14倍(bei)目標PE，對應(ying)目標價17.20元，維持(chi)“買入”評級。

(來源：慧博投研)

免責聲明：本(ben)文內容與數據僅供參(can)考，不構成投資建(jian)議，使用前請(qing)核實。據此操作，風險(xian)自擔。

(編輯 曾健輝)