每經(jing)AI快訊(xun)，2023年12月28日，中信證券發布研報點評(ping)廣州環投永(yong)興集團股份有限公司（601033）。

公(gong)司(si)是廣(guang)(guang)東(dong)省垃(la)圾(ji)(ji)焚(fen)燒(shao)發(fa)(fa)電龍頭(tou)，為(wei)(wei)廣(guang)(guang)州市焚(fen)燒(shao)發(fa)(fa)電項目唯一投資及運(yun)(yun)營(ying)主體，近年來公(gong)司(si)業務發(fa)(fa)展迅速；卡位廣(guang)(guang)州，公(gong)司(si)垃(la)圾(ji)(ji)發(fa)(fa)電的處理費優勢(shi)和(he)規模優勢(shi)都(dou)較為(wei)(wei)突出，且和(he)控股股東(dong)的收運(yun)(yun)業務存在協同效應；廣(guang)(guang)州市陳(chen)腐垃(la)圾(ji)(ji)處理工(gong)作正積極推進，摻燒(shao)陳(chen)腐垃(la)圾(ji)(ji)有助公(gong)司(si)提升(sheng)毛利率。結(jie)合(he)PE及DCF估值法，我(wo)們認為(wei)(wei)公(gong)司(si)合(he)理市值區(qu)間為(wei)(wei)128.33~144.37億元。

▍公(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)概覽：快(kuai)速成(cheng)長的(de)廣(guang)(guang)東省垃(la)圾(ji)焚(fen)燒發(fa)電(dian)龍(long)頭。公(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)業(ye)務(wu)以垃(la)圾(ji)焚(fen)燒處(chu)理服務(wu)為(wei)主，是(shi)廣(guang)(guang)州(zhou)(zhou)市垃(la)圾(ji)焚(fen)燒發(fa)電(dian)項目(mu)的(de)唯一投(tou)資和運營主體(ti)。公(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)卡位廣(guang)(guang)州(zhou)(zhou)，2022年(nian)垃(la)圾(ji)處(chu)理量在廣(guang)(guang)東省內焚(fen)燒發(fa)電(dian)企業(ye)中位居第一。公(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)控股(gu)股(gu)東為(wei)廣(guang)(guang)州(zhou)(zhou)環投(tou)集(ji)團(tuan)，實控人為(wei)廣(guang)(guang)州(zhou)(zhou)市政府，股(gu)權(quan)結構穩(wen)定。業(ye)務(wu)近年(nian)發(fa)展(zhan)迅(xun)速，2019~2022年(nian)，公(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)營業(ye)收入及歸母凈利(li)潤復(fu)合增速高(gao)達31%/79%。

▍行(xing)(xing)業趨勢：焚(fen)燒(shao)市(shi)場規模龐大，行(xing)(xing)業盈利能力持續(xu)(xu)提升可期。焚(fen)燒(shao)已(yi)經(jing)發(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)成為國(guo)內(nei)生(sheng)(sheng)活垃(la)(la)(la)圾處(chu)理最重(zhong)要(yao)處(chu)理手段，在當(dang)年城市(shi)生(sheng)(sheng)活垃(la)(la)(la)圾無害化處(chu)理量中(zhong)占比(bi)已(yi)經(jing)自2010年的19%增(zeng)至2022年的80%。我們預(yu)計2025年國(guo)內(nei)焚(fen)燒(shao)運營收入有望達(da)到(dao)781億(yi)元，行(xing)(xing)業投資額為159億(yi)元，行(xing)(xing)業市(shi)場規模合計940億(yi)元。我國(guo)生(sheng)(sheng)活垃(la)(la)(la)圾堆存量逾80億(yi)噸，陳腐垃(la)(la)(la)圾摻燒(shao)處(chu)置具備經(jing)濟及(ji)技術(shu)可行(xing)(xing)性。收運體(ti)系完善&經(jing)濟發(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)等推(tui)動(dong)下(xia)，焚(fen)燒(shao)發(fa)電項目收益率持續(xu)(xu)提升可期。

▍公(gong)司(si)(si)分(fen)析：卡(ka)(ka)位廣州優質區位，陳(chen)腐(fu)垃(la)圾(ji)(ji)處置打(da)開(kai)新空間。卡(ka)(ka)位核心城市為公(gong)司(si)(si)帶來極大優勢，2022年，公(gong)司(si)(si)在(zai)運營項目(mu)平(ping)均焚燒(shao)處理(li)(li)費(fei)超(chao)過(guo)(guo)160元/噸，在(zai)行(xing)業(ye)內(nei)處于領先水平(ping)；截至2022年底，公(gong)司(si)(si)在(zai)運焚燒(shao)發電項目(mu)平(ping)均處理(li)(li)規模超(chao)過(guo)(guo)2,000噸/日，單體項目(mu)規模龐(pang)大，在(zai)行(xing)業(ye)內(nei)的(de)(de)規模優勢較為顯著。目(mu)前廣州待開(kai)挖陳(chen)腐(fu)垃(la)圾(ji)(ji)存量近8,000萬噸。公(gong)司(si)(si)已實施存量垃(la)圾(ji)(ji)處理(li)(li)的(de)(de)前期試驗、工程準備(bei)工作，開(kai)挖廣州市陳(chen)腐(fu)垃(la)圾(ji)(ji)工作正在(zai)積極推進(jin)中。摻燒(shao)陳(chen)腐(fu)垃(la)圾(ji)(ji)有助公(gong)司(si)(si)提升(sheng)焚燒(shao)產能利用率及綜合毛利率。

▍募投(tou)(tou)項目(mu)(mu)(mu)：助力(li)(li)業(ye)務布局拓展，驅動盈利進一(yi)步(bu)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)。募投(tou)(tou)項目(mu)(mu)(mu)的(de)(de)實施(shi)，將(jiang)進一(yi)步(bu)擴大公(gong)司(si)(si)垃(la)圾焚(fen)(fen)燒(shao)(shao)處(chu)理(li)業(ye)務產(chan)能，穩(wen)固公(gong)司(si)(si)主(zhu)營(ying)(ying)業(ye)務競爭力(li)(li)，增(zeng)(zeng)強公(gong)司(si)(si)的(de)(de)可(ke)持續發(fa)展能力(li)(li)。“十四五(wu)”期(qi)間(jian)廣(guang)州市計劃(hua)(hua)加(jia)快(kuai)福(fu)山(shan)循(xun)環經(jing)濟產(chan)業(ye)園生活垃(la)圾應急綜合(he)處(chu)理(li)項目(mu)(mu)(mu)和第(di)四、第(di)五(wu)、第(di)六(liu)、第(di)七資源熱力(li)(li)電(dian)廠二(er)期(qi)等垃(la)圾焚(fen)(fen)燒(shao)(shao)廠建設，新增(zeng)(zeng)焚(fen)(fen)燒(shao)(shao)處(chu)理(li)能力(li)(li)1.60萬噸/日(ri)。本(ben)次(ci)募投(tou)(tou)項目(mu)(mu)(mu)被(bei)列入政府規劃(hua)(hua)的(de)(de)重點項目(mu)(mu)(mu)，項目(mu)(mu)(mu)建設完(wan)成后(hou)將(jiang)補足(zu)廣(guang)州市生活垃(la)圾處(chu)理(li)能力(li)(li)的(de)(de)短板(ban)。隨著募投(tou)(tou)項目(mu)(mu)(mu)順利投(tou)(tou)產(chan)，預計將(jiang)為公(gong)司(si)(si)帶來1.20萬噸/日(ri)的(de)(de)垃(la)圾焚(fen)(fen)燒(shao)(shao)產(chan)能增(zeng)(zeng)量。此外，補充流動資金(jin)(jin)項目(mu)(mu)(mu)的(de)(de)實施(shi)將(jiang)滿足(zu)公(gong)司(si)(si)主(zhu)營(ying)(ying)業(ye)務持續發(fa)展的(de)(de)資金(jin)(jin)需求，優化財務結構。

▍風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)因素：盈(ying)利預測假(jia)設不成(cheng)立的(de)(de)(de)(de)情(qing)況下對(dui)公(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)盈(ying)利預測、估值(zhi)帶來(lai)負面影(ying)響(xiang)的(de)(de)(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)。相(xiang)對(dui)估值(zhi)高于可(ke)比(bi)公(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)的(de)(de)(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)。A股市場波動(dong)(dong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)。新增項(xiang)目產能(neng)無法(fa)充(chong)分消化(hua)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)。新增項(xiang)目業(ye)(ye)績(ji)無法(fa)達到(dao)預期的(de)(de)(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)。生物質處(chu)理(li)(li)產能(neng)利用率(lv)較(jiao)(jiao)低(di)影(ying)響(xiang)公(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)收(shou)(shou)入(ru)的(de)(de)(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)。2022年在(zai)建工程集(ji)中(zhong)(zhong)大額轉固(gu)對(dui)未(wei)來(lai)經營業(ye)(ye)績(ji)的(de)(de)(de)(de)影(ying)響(xiang)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)。李(li)坑(keng)一廠(chang)2024年至2031年售電(dian)收(shou)(shou)入(ru)抵扣垃(la)(la)圾處(chu)理(li)(li)費的(de)(de)(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)。電(dian)價補貼政(zheng)策(ce)變(bian)動(dong)(dong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)。國(guo)補退坡影(ying)響(xiang)公(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)收(shou)(shou)入(ru)的(de)(de)(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)。平均上網電(dian)價降低(di)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)。垃(la)(la)圾處(chu)理(li)(li)服(fu)務(wu)費下調風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)。垃(la)(la)圾處(chu)理(li)(li)服(fu)務(wu)費核價風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)。應收(shou)(shou)賬款(kuan)不能(neng)全(quan)額回收(shou)(shou)的(de)(de)(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)。廣(guang)州市城管局的(de)(de)(de)(de)垃(la)(la)圾調度(du)(du)方案影(ying)響(xiang)公(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)發電(dian)產能(neng)利用率(lv)和營業(ye)(ye)收(shou)(shou)入(ru)的(de)(de)(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)。停爐(lu)檢(jian)修影(ying)響(xiang)公(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)經營業(ye)(ye)績(ji)的(de)(de)(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)。客戶集(ji)中(zhong)(zhong)度(du)(du)較(jiao)(jiao)高風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)。收(shou)(shou)入(ru)區(qu)域集(ji)中(zhong)(zhong)度(du)(du)較(jiao)(jiao)高風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)。毛利率(lv)波動(dong)(dong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)。公(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)項(xiang)目協(xie)議到(dao)期后不能(neng)續(xu)期的(de)(de)(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)。項(xiang)目后續(xu)不能(neng)按期完成(cheng)的(de)(de)(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)。生活垃(la)(la)圾進(jin)廠(chang)量及熱值(zhi)變(bian)化(hua)引起(qi)的(de)(de)(de)(de)盈(ying)利能(neng)力(li)波動(dong)(dong)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)。稅收(shou)(shou)優惠政(zheng)策(ce)失效(xiao)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)。環保政(zheng)策(ce)變(bian)動(dong)(dong)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)。行業(ye)(ye)競爭(zheng)加劇(ju)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)。安全(quan)生產風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)。環境(jing)污染風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)。垃(la)(la)圾焚燒技術更新迭代的(de)(de)(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)。不可(ke)抗(kang)力(li)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)。

▍估值(zhi)(zhi)結(jie)論：隨著(zhu)2023年(nian)邵東項(xiang)目(mu)投產貢獻新產能，同(tong)時(shi)公(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)(si)(si)原(yuan)生垃(la)圾(ji)收運(yun)增長(chang)且陳腐垃(la)圾(ji)參與存(cun)量項(xiang)目(mu)摻燒，公(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)(si)(si)垃(la)圾(ji)處(chu)理量有(you)望持續增多，我(wo)們預計2023~2025年(nian)公(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)(si)(si)歸母凈利潤(run)分別(bie)為(wei)8.02/8.96/10.04億元(yuan)。公(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)(si)(si)主要(yao)從(cong)事生活垃(la)圾(ji)焚燒發(fa)電(dian)業(ye)務(wu)并逐步拓展(zhan)生物質處(chu)理業(ye)務(wu)。由于(yu)(yu)公(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)(si)(si)已(yi)進入盈(ying)利期(qi)，未(wei)來年(nian)度盈(ying)利狀(zhuang)況及(ji)風險可(ke)預測(ce)(ce)且可(ke)用(yong)(yong)貨(huo)幣(bi)衡量，并且公(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)(si)(si)主營業(ye)務(wu)垃(la)圾(ji)焚燒發(fa)電(dian)和(he)生物質處(chu)理商業(ye)模式成熟且業(ye)務(wu)穩定性較(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)強，同(tong)時(shi)行業(ye)內(nei)可(ke)比(bi)(bi)(bi)公(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)(si)(si)較(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)多，PE市場(chang)乘數能較(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)為(wei)真(zhen)實(shi)地反映該(gai)(gai)行業(ye)內(nei)公(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)(si)(si)的估值(zhi)(zhi)，建議采用(yong)(yong)DCF和(he)PE估值(zhi)(zhi)兩(liang)種方(fang)法。目(mu)前主業(ye)從(cong)事垃(la)圾(ji)焚燒發(fa)電(dian)以及(ji)其他類型固廢處(chu)理的上(shang)(shang)市公(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)(si)(si)主要(yao)有(you)偉(wei)明環保(bao)、綠色動力、旺能環境(jing)、三峰環境(jing)、上(shang)(shang)海環境(jing)和(he)中科環保(bao)，因此(ci)選取該(gai)(gai)六家上(shang)(shang)市公(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)(si)(si)作為(wei)可(ke)比(bi)(bi)(bi)公(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)(si)(si)，由于(yu)(yu)中科環保(bao)目(mu)前無市場(chang)一致盈(ying)利預測(ce)(ce)，因此(ci)我(wo)們在計算可(ke)比(bi)(bi)(bi)公(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)(si)(si)平均(jun)PE時(shi)將(jiang)其剔除。2022年(nian)可(ke)比(bi)(bi)(bi)公(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)(si)(si)平均(jun)PE為(wei)13倍，2023~2025年(nian)可(ke)比(bi)(bi)(bi)公(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)(si)(si)Wind平均(jun)一致預測(ce)(ce)PE分別(bie)為(wei)12/10/9倍。由于(yu)(yu)公(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)(si)(si)垃(la)圾(ji)處(chu)理費較(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)高，單(dan)體(ti)項(xiang)目(mu)規模大，同(tong)時(shi)未(wei)來成長(chang)空間(jian)充(chong)沛，結(jie)合兩(liang)種估值(zhi)(zhi)方(fang)法，我(wo)們認為(wei)公(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)(si)(si)上(shang)(shang)市后6-12個月遠期(qi)整(zheng)體(ti)公(gong)(gong)允價值(zhi)(zhi)區間(jian)為(wei)128.33~144.37億元(yuan)，對應2023/2024/2025年(nian)市盈(ying)率為(wei)16~18/14~16/13~14倍（計算口(kou)徑(jing)為(wei)：市值(zhi)(zhi)區間(jian)除以前述(shu)預測(ce)(ce)的凈利潤(run)8.02/8.96/10.04億元(yuan)）。

(來源：慧博投研)

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(編輯 曾健輝)