每經(jing)AI快訊，中國銀河06月19日發布研報稱：給予建筑推薦（維持）評級。

中國(guo)(guo)特色(se)估值(zhi)體系(xi)的(de)構建(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)有望使(shi)低(di)估值(zhi)建(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)筑(zhu)(zhu)國(guo)(guo)企受(shou)益(yi)：2023年6月8日，中國(guo)(guo)證(zheng)監會主席(xi)易會滿在第十四屆陸家嘴論(lun)壇上(shang)演(yan)講指出要夯(hang)實(shi)中國(guo)(guo)特色(se)估值(zhi)體系(xi)的(de)內在基礎。建(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)筑(zhu)(zhu)行業(ye)國(guo)(guo)企占據主導地位，2022年國(guo)(guo)企營業(ye)收入(ru)占建(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)筑(zhu)(zhu)上(shang)市公司營收的(de)95%以上(shang)。當(dang)前建(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)筑(zhu)(zhu)國(guo)(guo)企無論(lun)是PE還是PB均非常低(di)，中國(guo)(guo)建(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)筑(zhu)(zhu)、中國(guo)(guo)鐵建(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)等公司的(de)PE均不超過7倍(bei)，PB均低(di)于0.8倍(bei)。國(guo)(guo)資委對央企的(de)考核更加注重ROE和現金(jin)流，國(guo)(guo)企高質(zhi)量發展持續推進，其估值(zhi)尚有較大提升空間(jian)。

基(ji)(ji)建(jian)投(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)依然(ran)(ran)是穩增長(chang)關(guan)鍵支撐：2023年(nian)出(chu)口仍(reng)有一定壓力(li)，消費復蘇(su)前(qian)景曲折，房地產下行壓力(li)大，基(ji)(ji)建(jian)投(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)依然(ran)(ran)是穩增長(chang)抓手。2023年(nian)1-5月，廣(guang)義基(ji)(ji)建(jian)投(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)增速為(wei)9.55%，電力(li)、熱力(li)及(ji)水的生(sheng)產供應增速快，廣(guang)義基(ji)(ji)建(jian)增速依然(ran)(ran)較為(wei)可觀。專(zhuan)項債(zhai)發行提速，基(ji)(ji)建(jian)投(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)資(zi)(zi)(zi)金來源有保障(zhang)。預計(ji)2023年(nian)我(wo)國廣(guang)義基(ji)(ji)建(jian)投(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)增速為(wei)6%。

竣工(gong)持續回升：2023年1-5月，房(fang)(fang)地(di)(di)產投(tou)資(zi)同比下(xia)降7.2%。“三條紅線(xian)”的限制(zhi)導(dao)致開發商(shang)的資(zi)金仍然緊繃(beng)，房(fang)(fang)地(di)(di)產投(tou)資(zi)、商(shang)品房(fang)(fang)銷(xiao)售改善(shan)后勁不足，房(fang)(fang)屋新(xin)開工(gong)面積(ji)持續下(xia)滑(hua)，房(fang)(fang)地(di)(di)產行(xing)業仍然承壓，但100城土地(di)(di)成(cheng)交(jiao)降幅收窄，“保交(jiao)樓(lou)”帶(dai)來了(le)房(fang)(fang)地(di)(di)產竣工(gong)面積(ji)回升。預計下(xia)半年房(fang)(fang)企(qi)融資(zi)有望(wang)(wang)改善(shan)，土地(di)(di)成(cheng)交(jiao)回升，銷(xiao)售和新(xin)開工(gong)改善(shan)，房(fang)(fang)建(jian)產業鏈回款(kuan)有望(wang)(wang)加速，行(xing)業景氣度有望(wang)(wang)提升。

專業(ye)工(gong)程分化較大：2023年是“一(yi)(yi)(yi)帶(dai)一(yi)(yi)(yi)路”倡(chang)議(yi)提出十周年，非洲(zhou)、中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)亞東南亞、歐洲(zhou)（俄羅斯）、南美(mei)洲(zhou)等(deng)地基(ji)建(jian)(jian)空(kong)間(jian)較大，“一(yi)(yi)(yi)帶(dai)一(yi)(yi)(yi)路”倡(chang)議(yi)有(you)望加(jia)強建(jian)(jian)筑(zhu)央(yang)企及國(guo)(guo)際工(gong)程企業(ye)與沿線各國(guo)(guo)在基(ji)礎(chu)設(she)施建(jian)(jian)設(she)領域(yu)的(de)合作，海(hai)外工(gong)程項目的(de)投資(zi)數量(liang)和資(zi)金(jin)都有(you)望持續增加(jia)。化建(jian)(jian)工(gong)程景氣度受(shou)油價擾動(dong)，新基(ji)建(jian)(jian)成(cheng)長空(kong)間(jian)較大。投資(zi)建(jian)(jian)議(yi)：推(tui)薦“中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)特估(gu)”和“一(yi)(yi)(yi)帶(dai)一(yi)(yi)(yi)路”倡(chang)議(yi)等(deng)相關標的(de)。截至6月16日，SW建(jian)(jian)筑(zhu)裝(zhuang)飾整體市盈率為9.94倍，在過(guo)去(qu)10年的(de)歷(li)史(shi)(shi)分位(wei)點為28.46%。PB為0.91倍，在過(guo)去(qu)10年的(de)歷(li)史(shi)(shi)分位(wei)點為30.47%,建(jian)(jian)筑(zhu)行業(ye)估(gu)值處于歷(li)史(shi)(shi)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)低位(wei)水平。中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)特色(se)估(gu)值的(de)構建(jian)(jian)或使低估(gu)值建(jian)(jian)筑(zhu)國(guo)(guo)企受(shou)益，“一(yi)(yi)(yi)帶(dai)一(yi)(yi)(yi)路”倡(chang)議(yi)有(you)望為建(jian)(jian)筑(zhu)行業(ye)打(da)開成(cheng)長空(kong)間(jian)。推(tui)薦中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)鐵建(jian)(jian)（601186.SH）、中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)建(jian)(jian)筑(zhu)(601668.SH)、中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)鐵(601390.SH)、中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)交建(jian)(jian)(601800.SH)、中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)電建(jian)(jian)(601669.SH)、中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)能建(jian)(jian)(601868.SH)、中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)冶(601618.SH)、中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)化學（601117.SH）等(deng)。建(jian)(jian)議(yi)關注山(shan)東路橋（000498.SZ）、安徽建(jian)(jian)工(gong)（600502.SH）、上海(hai)建(jian)(jian)工(gong)(600170.SH)、中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)鋼國(guo)(guo)際(000928.SZ)、中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)材國(guo)(guo)際(600970.SH)等(deng)。

風(feng)險(xian)提(ti)示：固(gu)定資產投資增速下滑的(de)風(feng)險(xian)；應收賬款(kuan)回收不及預。

每經(jing)頭條(tiao)（nbdtoutiao）——

(記者 王瀚黎)

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