每經AI快訊(xun)，中國銀河12月19日發布研報稱：給予公用事推薦（維持）評級。

電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)：新(xin)(xin)型(xing)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)系統亟需增(zeng)加調(diao)(diao)節能(neng)力(li)，現階(jie)(jie)段火(huo)(huo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)仍需發揮壓(ya)(ya)艙(cang)石(shi)作用(yong)：近年來隨(sui)著(zhu)新(xin)(xin)能(neng)源裝機大(da)(da)幅(fu)增(zeng)加，電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)系統調(diao)(diao)節能(neng)力(li)不足，對(dui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)安全穩定供應(ying)帶來較大(da)(da)影響。為增(zeng)加調(diao)(diao)節能(neng)力(li)并構建(jian)源網荷儲一體(ti)化和(he)多能(neng)互(hu)補(bu)的新(xin)(xin)型(xing)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)系統，國家及多地出臺(tai)政策支(zhi)持新(xin)(xin)建(jian)火(huo)(huo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)、火(huo)(huo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)靈活性(xing)改造、新(xin)(xin)能(neng)源配儲以及新(xin)(xin)建(jian)獨立儲能(neng)等。短期(qi)來看，火(huo)(huo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)投資已有提速趨(qu)勢，現階(jie)(jie)段仍需發揮壓(ya)(ya)艙(cang)石(shi)的作用(yong)，由(you)主體(ti)性(xing)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)源向調(diao)(diao)節性(xing)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)源有序(xu)轉變(bian)。預計(ji)2022-2024年煤電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)新(xin)(xin)增(zeng)裝機140GW，十四五期(qi)間(jian)火(huo)(huo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)靈活性(xing)改造200GW；中長(chang)期(qi)來看，隨(sui)著(zhu)新(xin)(xin)型(xing)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)系統建(jian)設不斷完善，消納能(neng)力(li)提升支(zhi)持新(xin)(xin)能(neng)源長(chang)期(qi)增(zeng)長(chang)空(kong)間(jian)。

火電(dian)(dian)：保(bao)供(gong)能力(li)仍然重要(yao)，火電(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)機及(ji)靈(ling)活(huo)性改造有望加(jia)速(su)。進(jin)入十四五(wu)，特別是(shi)2022年以來電(dian)(dian)力(li)供(gong)需(xu)(xu)形勢趨(qu)緊，火電(dian)(dian)保(bao)供(gong)作用(yong)凸(tu)顯。今(jin)年以來，山東、甘肅已指(zhi)定容(rong)量電(dian)(dian)價(jia)補(bu)償(chang)政策；國家能源(yuan)局也明(ming)確提出(chu)，各地結合(he)(he)電(dian)(dian)力(li)市(shi)場發(fa)展情況和(he)實際(ji)需(xu)(xu)要(yao)，探索建立市(shi)場化容(rong)量補(bu)償(chang)機制；《2023年電(dian)(dian)煤中長(chang)(chang)期(qi)合(he)(he)同簽約履約工(gong)作方案(an)》發(fa)布(bu)，結合(he)(he)了2022年合(he)(he)同實際(ji)執(zhi)行過(guo)程中存在(zai)的問(wen)題，調(diao)整后更加(jia)明(ming)確合(he)(he)理(li)，也更具有執(zhi)行力(li)。我們預計(ji)容(rong)量電(dian)(dian)價(jia)出(chu)臺以及(ji)長(chang)(chang)協煤價(jia)下降有望改善(shan)火電(dian)(dian)盈利能力(li)，推動新(xin)增裝(zhuang)機以及(ji)靈(ling)活(huo)性改造加(jia)速(su)。

新能(neng)源：風電(dian)招(zhao)標(biao)持續(xu)(xu)(xu)高(gao)景氣，新增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)有望(wang)重回高(gao)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長：雖然今(jin)年(nian)(nian)以來新增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)放緩，但從(cong)前瞻指標(biao)招(zhao)標(biao)量來看，前三(san)季(ji)度國內(nei)招(zhao)標(biao)量已(yi)達76.3GW，同比增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長82.1%，10月招(zhao)標(biao)量4.89GW。隨著疫情緩解、產業鏈持續(xu)(xu)(xu)降本，以及(ji)大基地、海(hai)風項目(mu)持續(xu)(xu)(xu)推進，中國可再生能(neng)源學會預(yu)計2023-2025年(nian)(nian)國內(nei)年(nian)(nian)均新增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)60-70GW。光(guang)(guang)伏(fu)集中式(shi)+分(fen)布(bu)式(shi)并舉，新增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)有望(wang)持續(xu)(xu)(xu)高(gao)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長。前三(san)季(ji)度我國集中式(shi)光(guang)(guang)伏(fu)新增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)1727萬千瓦(wa)，分(fen)布(bu)式(shi)光(guang)(guang)伏(fu)3533萬千瓦(wa)，分(fen)布(bu)式(shi)占據前三(san)季(ji)度新增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)的2/3。根(gen)據光(guang)(guang)伏(fu)協(xie)會預(yu)測(ce)，2022年(nian)(nian)全國光(guang)(guang)伏(fu)新增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)85-100GW，同比增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長55%-82%；2023-2025年(nian)(nian)新增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)呈遞增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)趨勢。

燃氣：經濟(ji)復蘇疊加(jia)價格(ge)下(xia)行，近期(qi)天然氣需(xu)求有望(wang)企穩回升：今年以來燃氣消(xiao)費(fei)下(xia)滑主(zhu)要受到(dao)經濟(ji)下(xia)行及(ji)燃氣價格(ge)高漲等因素的(de)影(ying)響。隨著疫(yi)情防(fang)控(kong)有所放開，以及(ji)二十(shi)大后續(xu)穩增長政策發力，有利于市場需(xu)求恢復和經濟(ji)循環(huan)暢通。此外，國(guo)(guo)內(nei)國(guo)(guo)際氣價較年內(nei)高點已大幅回落，近期(qi)燃氣需(xu)求有望(wang)企穩回升。

投(tou)資建議：重點推薦(jian)全國(guo)火(huo)電(dian)轉(zhuan)型(xing)新(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)龍(long)頭(tou)國(guo)電(dian)電(dian)力(li)（600795.SH）、華能(neng)國(guo)際（600011.SH）,全國(guo)綠電(dian)龍(long)頭(tou)三(san)峽能(neng)源(yuan)（600905.SH）、龍(long)源(yuan)電(dian)力(li)（001289.SZ），燃氣龍(long)頭(tou)九豐能(neng)源(yuan)（605090.SH）、新(xin)奧股(gu)份(fen)（600803.SH）。

風險提(ti)示(shi)：裝(zhuang)機(ji)規(gui)模(mo)不及預(yu)期；原料價(jia)(jia)格(ge)上(shang)(shang)漲導致新項(xiang)目造價(jia)(jia)上(shang)(shang)升；煤(mei)炭價(jia)(jia)格(ge)持續高(gao)位(wei)；上(shang)(shang)網電價(jia)(jia)下調；行業競爭(zheng)加劇的(de)的(de)風險。

每經頭條(tiao)（nbdtoutiao）——

(記者 蔡鼎)

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