每經(jing)AI快(kuai)訊(xun)，中國銀河08月17日發布研報稱：給予煤炭推薦（維持）評級。

事(shi)件：統計局發(fa)布2022年7月(yue)煤炭生產(chan)數據。

7月國(guo)內原(yuan)(yuan)煤產(chan)(chan)量同(tong)比(bi)上升，進(jin)口煤數(shu)量持續走低(di)：根據統(tong)計(ji)局公(gong)布的(de)2022年7月煤炭生(sheng)產(chan)(chan)數(shu)據，7月原(yuan)(yuan)煤單(dan)月產(chan)(chan)量37,266萬噸(dun)，同(tong)比(bi)上漲16.10%，增(zeng)(zeng)速環(huan)比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)0.8PCT，1-7月累(lei)計(ji)原(yuan)(yuan)煤產(chan)(chan)量256,151萬噸(dun)，同(tong)比(bi)上漲11.50%，增(zeng)(zeng)產(chan)(chan)保供政(zheng)策效果明(ming)顯；7月煤及褐煤單(dan)月進(jin)口2352.30萬噸(dun)，1-7月累(lei)計(ji)進(jin)口13852.20萬噸(dun)，同(tong)比(bi)下降18.20%，國(guo)際煤炭資源依然(ran)緊張，進(jin)口端補給作用(yong)有限。

7月(yue)煤(mei)炭(tan)銷量同比上漲：7月(yue)國(guo)有重點煤(mei)礦(kuang)煤(mei)炭(tan)單月(yue)銷量16,124.80萬噸(dun)(dun)，高(gao)于去年(nian)當月(yue)14,402.50噸(dun)(dun)，增幅12%。

7月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)火(huo)(huo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)發電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量當月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)同(tong)(tong)比(bi)小(xiao)幅上(shang)升(sheng)(sheng)，累(lei)計(ji)同(tong)(tong)比(bi)小(xiao)幅下(xia)降，太(tai)陽(yang)能(neng)(neng)發電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)上(shang)升(sheng)(sheng)勢(shi)(shi)頭(tou)(tou)強(qiang)烈(lie)：7月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)發電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量單(dan)月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)同(tong)(tong)比(bi)上(shang)漲(zhang)4.50%，1-7月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)累(lei)計(ji)發電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量同(tong)(tong)比(bi)上(shang)漲(zhang)1.40%。火(huo)(huo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)發電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量單(dan)月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)同(tong)(tong)比(bi)上(shang)漲(zhang)5.30%（上(shang)月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)為-6%，本月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)由負(fu)轉正），1-7月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)火(huo)(huo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)累(lei)計(ji)發電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量同(tong)(tong)比(bi)下(xia)降2.50%。水電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)/核電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)/風電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)/太(tai)陽(yang)能(neng)(neng)單(dan)月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)同(tong)(tong)比(bi)+2.40%/-3.30%/+5.70%/+13.00%。水電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)/核電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)/風電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)/太(tai)陽(yang)能(neng)(neng)1-7月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)累(lei)計(ji)同(tong)(tong)比(bi)16.30%/+1.10%/+7.70%/+13.00%。太(tai)陽(yang)能(neng)(neng)發電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)3月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)4月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)5月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)6月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)同(tong)(tong)比(bi)16.80%/+24.90%/+8.30%/+9.90%，上(shang)升(sheng)(sheng)勢(shi)(shi)頭(tou)(tou)明顯。全國大(da)范圍高(gao)溫天氣支(zhi)撐電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)煤(mei)(mei)需(xu)求高(gao)企，水電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)短期現疲軟態(tai)勢(shi)(shi)，電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)煤(mei)(mei)去庫速度加(jia)快，三四(si)季度非電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)用(yong)煤(mei)(mei)需(xu)求有望轉暖。

7月(yue)(yue)(yue)鋼(gang)鐵需求(qiu)(qiu)不及(ji)預期(qi)，建材行業(ye)需求(qiu)(qiu)持(chi)續下(xia)(xia)降(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)，非電煤需求(qiu)(qiu)有(you)望(wang)三四季度發力：7月(yue)(yue)(yue)粗(cu)鋼(gang)單月(yue)(yue)(yue)產(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)同(tong)(tong)比(bi)下(xia)(xia)降(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)6.40%，1-7月(yue)(yue)(yue)累計(ji)產(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)同(tong)(tong)比(bi)下(xia)(xia)降(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)6.40%；水泥(ni)單月(yue)(yue)(yue)產(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)同(tong)(tong)比(bi)下(xia)(xia)降(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)7.00%，1-7月(yue)(yue)(yue)累計(ji)產(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)同(tong)(tong)比(bi)下(xia)(xia)降(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)14.20%；生鐵單月(yue)(yue)(yue)產(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)同(tong)(tong)比(bi)下(xia)(xia)降(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)3.60%，1-7月(yue)(yue)(yue)累計(ji)產(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)同(tong)(tong)比(bi)下(xia)(xia)降(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)4.50%。未來焦煤價格走勢依賴(lai)于(yu)鋼(gang)材需求(qiu)(qiu)能否回暖(nuan)及(ji)下(xia)(xia)游去庫狀況。

電(dian)(dian)(dian)煤(mei)需(xu)求高(gao)企，電(dian)(dian)(dian)廠(chang)煤(mei)炭(tan)日(ri)耗(hao)量持(chi)續走高(gao)：在5月(yue)(yue)初經歷過(guo)最低點后，電(dian)(dian)(dian)廠(chang)用煤(mei)量逐漸走高(gao)，其(qi)中(zhong)，樣本區(qu)域電(dian)(dian)(dian)廠(chang)煤(mei)炭(tan)日(ri)耗(hao)量從5月(yue)(yue)初37.30萬噸(dun)(dun)增(zeng)長(chang)至(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)8月(yue)(yue)5日(ri)146.00萬噸(dun)(dun)，增(zeng)幅超過(guo)300%，此外，南方(fang)8省電(dian)(dian)(dian)廠(chang)日(ri)耗(hao)量從5月(yue)(yue)16日(ri)141.40萬噸(dun)(dun)增(zeng)長(chang)至(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)8月(yue)(yue)9日(ri)232.80萬噸(dun)(dun)，全國(guo)重點電(dian)(dian)(dian)廠(chang)煤(mei)炭(tan)日(ri)耗(hao)量從5月(yue)(yue)19日(ri)351.80萬噸(dun)(dun)增(zeng)長(chang)至(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)8月(yue)(yue)4日(ri)574.00萬噸(dun)(dun)。

動(dong)力煤庫(ku)(ku)(ku)(ku)(ku)存(cun)(cun)經歷波動(dong)，近期(qi)去(qu)庫(ku)(ku)(ku)(ku)(ku)加速：秦皇島港(gang)7月(yue)1日(ri)煤炭庫(ku)(ku)(ku)(ku)(ku)存(cun)(cun)580萬(wan)噸，在(zai)7月(yue)15日(ri)庫(ku)(ku)(ku)(ku)(ku)存(cun)(cun)達到615萬(wan)噸后(hou)開始持續(xu)下(xia)降，7月(yue)31日(ri)庫(ku)(ku)(ku)(ku)(ku)存(cun)(cun)558萬(wan)噸，截(jie)(jie)止至8月(yue)16日(ri)，秦皇島港(gang)庫(ku)(ku)(ku)(ku)(ku)存(cun)(cun)508萬(wan)噸。CCTD主(zhu)(zhu)流港(gang)口煤炭庫(ku)(ku)(ku)(ku)(ku)存(cun)(cun)在(zai)7月(yue)4日(ri)庫(ku)(ku)(ku)(ku)(ku)存(cun)(cun)6490.40萬(wan)噸，然(ran)后(hou)持續(xu)下(xia)降，8月(yue)1日(ri)庫(ku)(ku)(ku)(ku)(ku)存(cun)(cun)6178.80萬(wan)噸，截(jie)(jie)止至8月(yue)15日(ri)，CCTD主(zhu)(zhu)流港(gang)口庫(ku)(ku)(ku)(ku)(ku)存(cun)(cun)5940.50萬(wan)噸。

投(tou)資建(jian)議(yi)：7月煤(mei)(mei)(mei)炭(tan)(tan)行業生產(chan)(chan)(chan)數據(ju)顯示，增產(chan)(chan)(chan)保(bao)供政策效果明顯，煤(mei)(mei)(mei)炭(tan)(tan)產(chan)(chan)(chan)量維(wei)持(chi)高位，但進(jin)口端(duan)補給作用依(yi)然(ran)(ran)有限，整體供給端(duan)穩中有升；需(xu)(xu)求(qiu)(qiu)端(duan)，電(dian)煤(mei)(mei)(mei)需(xu)(xu)求(qiu)(qiu)在全國(guo)大范圍高溫(wen)天氣(qi)持(chi)續影響下(xia)(xia)，電(dian)廠日耗持(chi)續高企且運行于(yu)歷史高位水(shui)平，電(dian)煤(mei)(mei)(mei)需(xu)(xu)求(qiu)(qiu)旺盛(sheng)，非電(dian)煤(mei)(mei)(mei)需(xu)(xu)求(qiu)(qiu)短期(qi)略低于(yu)預期(qi)，但是三四季(ji)度(du)隨(sui)著下(xia)(xia)游供需(xu)(xu)格(ge)局好轉，下(xia)(xia)游利潤逐步恢復(fu)，將有望拉動(dong)非電(dian)用煤(mei)(mei)(mei)需(xu)(xu)求(qiu)(qiu)的轉暖(nuan)。二十大召開在即(ji)，行業環保(bao)、安監(jian)壓力將制約產(chan)(chan)(chan)量的大幅(fu)釋放，8月9日、11日歐盟削(xue)減天然(ran)(ran)氣(qi)用量及(ji)制裁俄(e)煤(mei)(mei)(mei)禁(jin)令相繼生效，預計國(guo)際煤(mei)(mei)(mei)炭(tan)(tan)供需(xu)(xu)格(ge)局依(yi)然(ran)(ran)緊(jin)張，帶動(dong)三四季(ji)度(du)國(guo)內煤(mei)(mei)(mei)炭(tan)(tan)供需(xu)(xu)格(ge)局偏向緊(jin)張。投(tou)資建(jian)議(yi)方面，個股推薦陜西煤(mei)(mei)(mei)業（601225）、中國(guo)神(shen)華（601088）、山西焦煤(mei)(mei)(mei)（000983）、中煤(mei)(mei)(mei)能源（601898）。

風險提示(shi)：政策調控導致煤價大幅下(xia)跌(die)的風險、國企改(gai)革不(bu)及預期的風險。

每經頭條（nbdtoutiao）——

(記者 蔡鼎)

免責聲明：本文內容與數據僅供參考，不構成(cheng)投資(zi)建議(yi)，使(shi)用前(qian)請(qing)核實。據此操(cao)作，風險自擔。